Panathinaikos 2-0 Lamia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Panathinaikos (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Panathinaikos face Lamia.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 21 as Panathinaikos welcome Lamia to Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 February 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Panathinaikos stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panathinaikos's home record at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Panathinaikos are significantly better at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Lamia have recorded 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamia's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Panathinaikos are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Panathinaikos's 30% rate and Lamia's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Panathinaikos have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 past contests while Lamia have managed just 0 wins.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 2–0 with Panathinaikos winning.
The historical record gives Panathinaikos a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Panathinaikos trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
Lamia trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panathinaikos 31% versus Lamia 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Panathinaikos 33% | Lamia 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 1.43 xG and Lamia 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 0.983 / defence 0.945 | Lamia attack 0.619 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.194 / away 1.023. Lamia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Panathinaikos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Panathinaikos games / 46 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 54% | Draw 33% | Lamia 13%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 1.85 | Draw 3.03 | Lamia 7.69. Panathinaikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Panathinaikos are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panathinaikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Panathinaikos 30% | Lamia 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Feb 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 54% | Draw 33% | Lamia 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 37% | xG Panathinaikos 1.43 / Lamia 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 0.983 / def 0.945 | Lamia attack 0.619 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.194 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Lamia xG
37%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panathinaikos vs Lamia kick off?
Panathinaikos vs Lamia kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 5 February 2023 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs Lamia?
Panathinaikos 2 - 0 Lamia.
Where is Panathinaikos vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs Lamia part of?
Panathinaikos vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 54% chance of winning, Lamia a 13% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Panathinaikos and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Panathinaikos vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Lamia?
Record (3 meetings): Panathinaikos 3W | Draws 0 | Lamia 0W.
What form are Panathinaikos and Lamia in?
Panathinaikos (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Lamia (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Panathinaikos's attack at 0.98x the league average against Lamia's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Panathinaikos's defence, projects 0.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 2-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
54%
1.84
33%
3.04
13%
7.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
2.02
0.60
Lamia xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
7.86
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
55%
1.82
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
30%
3.35
3%
32.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.8 | 11.3 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 8.0 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 0.60 for Lamia, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Panathinaikos have picked up 1.87 PPG on a 31W 10D 14L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Panathinaikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lamia's form line: 8W 18D 29L from 55 games, 0.76 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Panathinaikos are the form team by 1.11 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamia.
Venue Form
On home soil, Panathinaikos have posted 2.30 PPG from 27 outings (19W 5D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.87 PPG overall — Panathinaikos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lamia have gone 5W 9D 13L from 27 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Panathinaikos are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.64 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Blended
Lamia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panathinaikos and Lamia in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 31W 10D 14L in their last 55 games (1.87 PPG), while Lamia have gone 8W 18D 29L in their last 55 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panathinaikos at home or Lamia away?
Panathinaikos's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panathinaikos at home: 2.30 PPG; Lamia away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Panathinaikos or Lamia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Lamia in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2024, when Panathinaikos won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Panathinaikos's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Panathinaikos
1
Draws
1
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, Panathinaikos have won 8, Lamia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Lamia 3-1 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and Lamia?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Lamia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Panathinaikos 30% BTTS, Lamia 26%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Panathinaikos and 33% for Lamia.
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 63% of their matches; Lamia in 33%; Lamia in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panathinaikos play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 26% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panathinaikos vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Panathinaikos's recent games and 33% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panathinaikos and Lamia tend to score early?
Panathinaikos have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Lamia in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panathinaikos cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat Lamia 2-0 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.43 xG and Lamia 0.60 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 0.98 / defence 0.94 against Lamia attack 0.62 / defence 1.21, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 54% | Draw 33% | Lamia 13%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 33%, Lamia 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panathinaikos's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lamia's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.76. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.