Olympiakos Piraeus 1-1 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Volos NFC travel to Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki to take on Olympiakos Piraeus. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 September 2022, 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Olympiakos Piraeus — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Volos NFC have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Volos NFC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Volos NFC have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On current form, Olympiakos Piraeus have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Olympiakos Piraeus trading profile (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Volos NFC trading profile (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 53% versus Volos NFC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 47% | Volos NFC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.37 xG and Volos NFC 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.328 / defence 0.872 | Volos NFC attack 1.040 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.184 / away 1.003. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.328 — their λ of 1.37 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 29 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 29 Volos NFC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 46% | Draw 30% | Volos NFC 24%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Volos NFC 4.17. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Olympiakos Piraeus 70% | Volos NFC 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (29 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Sep 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 46% | Draw 30% | Volos NFC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.37 / Volos NFC 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.328 / def 0.872 | Volos NFC attack 1.040 / def 0.870 | league avg home 1.184 / away 1.003 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Volos NFC xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 11 September 2022 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC?
Olympiakos Piraeus 1 - 1 Volos NFC.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 46% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Volos NFC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Olympiakos Piraeus's attacking strength (1.33x league average) is weighed against Volos NFC's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Olympiakos Piraeus's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (29/29 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
46%
2.17
30%
3.30
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.28
0.91
Volos NFC xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
25%
3.92
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
6%
16.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.8 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.91 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Olympiakos Piraeus have picked up 2.31 PPG on a 25W 8D 3L record — D-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Volos NFC's form line: 11W 11D 14L from 36 games, 1.22 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Volos NFC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 1.09 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Volos NFC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 2.59 PPG from 17 outings (14W 2D 1L).
On the road, Volos NFC have gone 4W 7D 6L from 17 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.42 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
Volos NFC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 25W 8D 3L in their last 36 games (2.31 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 11W 11D 14L in their last 36 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Volos NFC away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.59 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Volos NFC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Volos NFC in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Olympiakos Piraeus's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Olympiakos Piraeus
2
Draws
0
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 8, Volos NFC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 59%, Volos NFC 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 59% (Volos NFC).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Volos NFC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Olympiakos Piraeus's games and 71% of Volos NFC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 59% of Volos NFC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 4, as Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.37 xG and Volos NFC 0.91 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.33 / defence 0.87 against Volos NFC attack 1.04 / defence 0.87, drawn from 29/29 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 46% | Draw 30% | Volos NFC 24%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 47%, Volos NFC 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Volos NFC's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.