Olympiakos Piraeus 1-2 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki plays host to Olympiakos Piraeus versus PAOK in Super League 1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Monday 17 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Olympiakos Piraeus's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
PAOK have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. PAOK have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, PAOK have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Olympiakos Piraeus, 1.60 for PAOK — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 56% versus PAOK 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 49% | PAOK 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.27 xG and PAOK 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.208 / defence 0.779 | PAOK attack 0.912 / defence 0.849. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.050. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating of 0.779 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 33 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 33 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 46% | Draw 34% | PAOK 19%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.17 | Draw 2.94 | PAOK 5.26. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Olympiakos Piraeus 80% | PAOK 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Monday 17 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 46% | Draw 34% | PAOK 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.27 / PAOK 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.208 / def 0.779 | PAOK attack 0.912 / def 0.849 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.75
PAOK xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 17 October 2022 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Olympiakos Piraeus 1 - 2 PAOK.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 46% chance of winning, PAOK a 19% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. PAOK (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Olympiakos Piraeus's attack rating (1.21) and PAOK's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (0.91x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
46%
2.16
34%
2.92
19%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.01
0.75
PAOK xG
2.16
46%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
5.13
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
22%
4.56
5%
18.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 10.0 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 12.6 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.75 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Olympiakos Piraeus's recent record stands at 29W 10D 4L from 43 games, a 2.26 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PAOK, meanwhile, have gone 22W 10D 11L across 43 games — 1.77 PPG, with D-W-D-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for PAOK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over PAOK heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Olympiakos Piraeus have managed 16W 4D 1L from 21 games — 2.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAOK's away record stands at 9W 6D 6L across 21 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.72 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.51 scored and 0.88 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; PAOK in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
PAOK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 29W 10D 4L in their last 43 games (2.26 PPG), while PAOK have gone 22W 10D 11L in their last 43 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or PAOK away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.48 PPG; PAOK away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, PAOK in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
2
Draws
4
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, PAOK have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-1 PAOK.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 57%, PAOK 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 38% (PAOK).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; PAOK in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 48% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 38% of PAOK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, PAOK in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as PAOK defy the odds to beat Olympiakos Piraeus 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Olympiakos Piraeus 1-2 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.27 xG and PAOK 0.75 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. PAOK outscored their 0.75 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.21 / defence 0.78 against PAOK attack 0.91 / defence 0.85, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 46% | Draw 34% | PAOK 19%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a PAOK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 49%, PAOK 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
PAOK's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.77. Form was overturned, with PAOK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.