Olympiakos Piraeus 1-1 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki plays host to Olympiakos Piraeus versus PAOK in Super League 1, Championship Round - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Olympiakos Piraeus's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Olympiakos Piraeus are significantly better at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki than their overall form suggests.
PAOK have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, PAOK have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Olympiakos Piraeus's favour (1.70 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 53% versus PAOK 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 50% | PAOK 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.27 xG and PAOK 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.335 / defence 0.890 | PAOK attack 1.131 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 0.985 / away 1.050. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.335 — their λ of 1.27 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 26 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 26 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 41% | Draw 28% | PAOK 31%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | PAOK 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 60% | PAOK 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 9 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 41% | Draw 28% | PAOK 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.27 / PAOK 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.335 / def 0.890 | PAOK attack 1.131 / def 0.965 | league avg home 0.985 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
1.06
PAOK xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Olympiakos Piraeus 1 - 1 PAOK.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK is a Championship Round - 9 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 41% chance of winning, PAOK a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. PAOK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Olympiakos Piraeus's attack rating (1.33) and PAOK's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.13x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
41%
2.43
28%
3.56
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.33
1.06
PAOK xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
14%
6.99
9%
11.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.3 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.1 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 1.06 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Olympiakos Piraeus's recent record stands at 24W 7D 3L from 34 games, a 2.32 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five.
PAOK, meanwhile, have gone 18W 6D 10L across 34 games — 1.76 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over PAOK heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Olympiakos Piraeus have managed 13W 3D 1L from 17 games — 2.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAOK's away record stands at 9W 2D 6L across 17 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.68 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.62 scored and 0.94 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; PAOK in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Current Season
PAOK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 24W 7D 3L in their last 34 games (2.32 PPG), while PAOK have gone 18W 6D 10L in their last 34 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or PAOK away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.47 PPG; PAOK away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, PAOK in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
2
Draws
4
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, PAOK have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-1 PAOK.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 53%, PAOK 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 47% (PAOK).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; PAOK in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 41% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 47% of PAOK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, PAOK in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Championship Round - 9, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.27 xG and PAOK 1.06 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.33 / defence 0.89 against PAOK attack 1.13 / defence 0.96, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 41% | Draw 28% | PAOK 31%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 50%, PAOK 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
PAOK's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.76. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.