Olympiakos Piraeus 6-1 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Olympiakos Piraeus face Panetolikos.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos meet at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki in Super League 1, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Monday 13 February 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
Panetolikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panetolikos away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Olympiakos Piraeus's 2.20 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Panetolikos's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Olympiakos Piraeus have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 3 meetings, with Panetolikos managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 2–0 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Olympiakos Piraeus and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Panetolikos — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 50% versus Panetolikos 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 44% | Panetolikos 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.78 xG and Panetolikos 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.328 / defence 0.742 | Panetolikos attack 1.208 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.044. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.328 — their λ of 1.78 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Panetolikos have an above-average attack strength of 1.208 — the away xG of 0.94 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating of 0.742 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 47 Panetolikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 54% | Draw 30% | Panetolikos 16%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.85 | Draw 3.33 | Panetolikos 6.25. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 40% | Panetolikos 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Monday 13 Feb 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 54% | Draw 30% | Panetolikos 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.78 / Panetolikos 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.328 / def 0.742 | Panetolikos attack 1.208 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.044 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Panetolikos xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 13 February 2023 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos?
Olympiakos Piraeus 6 - 1 Panetolikos.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 54% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 16% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos?
Record (3 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 3W | Draws 0 | Panetolikos 0W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Panetolikos (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Olympiakos Piraeus's attack rating (1.33) and Panetolikos's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Panetolikos's attack (1.21x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
54%
1.85
30%
3.36
16%
6.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.71
0.94
Panetolikos xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
6.14
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
17%
5.92
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
3%
36.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.0 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.94 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Olympiakos Piraeus's recent record stands at 35W 14D 5L from 54 games, a 2.20 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panetolikos, meanwhile, have gone 16W 13D 25L across 54 games — 1.13 PPG, with L-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 1.07 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Panetolikos heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Olympiakos Piraeus have managed 19W 5D 2L from 26 games — 2.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Panetolikos's away record stands at 10W 5D 11L across 26 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 1.02 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
Panetolikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 35W 14D 5L in their last 54 games (2.20 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 16W 13D 25L in their last 54 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Panetolikos away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.38 PPG; Panetolikos away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Panetolikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Panetolikos in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 6-1 on 13 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Panetolikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Olympiakos Piraeus
1
Draws
0
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 9, Panetolikos have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 2-0 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 50%, Panetolikos 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 58% (Panetolikos).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Panetolikos in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Panetolikos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Olympiakos Piraeus's games and 62% of Panetolikos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 58% of Panetolikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Panetolikos in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Olympiakos Piraeus run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Panetolikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Panetolikos 6-1 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.78 xG and Panetolikos 0.94 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus beat their projection by 4.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.33 / defence 0.74 against Panetolikos attack 1.21 / defence 1.14, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 54% | Draw 30% | Panetolikos 16%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 44%, Panetolikos 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Panetolikos's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm. Panetolikos (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.