Olympiakos Piraeus 1-2 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Panathinaikos make the trip to Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki to face Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Championship Round - 8. The match kicks off on Wednesday 11 May 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Olympiakos Piraeus at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Olympiakos Piraeus are significantly better at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki than their overall form suggests.
Panathinaikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Panathinaikos have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Olympiakos Piraeus against 1.90 for Panathinaikos. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Olympiakos Piraeus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Panathinaikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 52% versus Panathinaikos 30%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 48% | Panathinaikos 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.55 xG and Panathinaikos 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.340 / defence 0.885 | Panathinaikos attack 0.943 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 0.986 / away 1.050. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.340 — their λ of 1.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 26 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 26 Panathinaikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 53% | Draw 26% | Panathinaikos 21%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Panathinaikos 4.76. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 50% | Panathinaikos 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 8 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 May 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 53% | Draw 26% | Panathinaikos 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 46% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.55 / Panathinaikos 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.340 / def 0.885 | Panathinaikos attack 0.943 / def 1.171 | league avg home 0.986 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Panathinaikos xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 11 May 2022 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Olympiakos Piraeus 1 - 2 Panathinaikos.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos is a Championship Round - 8 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 53% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Panathinaikos (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against Panathinaikos's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — Panathinaikos's attack (0.94x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
53%
1.89
26%
3.89
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.42
0.88
Panathinaikos xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
5%
22.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.0 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.88 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Olympiakos Piraeus come into this having played 33 games, going 24W 7D 2L for 2.39 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Panathinaikos sit at 1.67 PPG from 33 outings (16W 7D 10L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-D across their last five.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Panathinaikos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Olympiakos Piraeus's home form reads 13W 3D 0L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Panathinaikos have taken 1.00 points per game from 16 outings (4W 4D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Panathinaikos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 0.64 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 1.39 scored and 0.70 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Panathinaikos in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Current Season
Panathinaikos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 24W 7D 2L in their last 33 games (2.39 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 16W 7D 10L in their last 33 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Panathinaikos away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.62 PPG; Panathinaikos away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Olympiakos Piraeus have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Panathinaikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
4
Draws
2
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, Panathinaikos have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 50%, Panathinaikos 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 38% (Panathinaikos).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Panathinaikos in 44%; Panathinaikos in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Panathinaikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 31% of Panathinaikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 38% of Panathinaikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Panathinaikos in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Panathinaikos defy the odds to beat Olympiakos Piraeus 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat Olympiakos Piraeus 1-2 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Championship Round - 8, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.55 xG and Panathinaikos 0.88 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Panathinaikos outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.34 / defence 0.89 against Panathinaikos attack 0.94 / defence 1.17, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 53% | Draw 26% | Panathinaikos 21%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Panathinaikos win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 48%, Panathinaikos 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Panathinaikos's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.67. Form was overturned, with Panathinaikos winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.