Olympiakos Piraeus 2-1 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Olympiakos Piraeus face OFI.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus host OFI at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki in Super League 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 January 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Olympiakos Piraeus — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 6W 3D 1L at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
Looking at all fixtures this season, OFI stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Olympiakos Piraeus are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
Olympiakos Piraeus hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 3 previous encounters compared to 0 for OFI, with 0 draws in between.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Olympiakos Piraeus and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Olympiakos Piraeus in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
OFI in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 50% versus OFI 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 44% | OFI 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.38 xG and OFI 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.309 / defence 0.712 | OFI attack 1.136 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.168 / away 1.025. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.309 — their λ of 1.38 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating of 0.712 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 45 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 46% | Draw 35% | OFI 19%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.17 | Draw 2.86 | OFI 5.26. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 40% | OFI 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Jan 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 46% | Draw 35% | OFI 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.38 / OFI 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.309 / def 0.712 | OFI attack 1.136 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.168 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.83
OFI xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 29 January 2023 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI?
Olympiakos Piraeus 2 - 1 OFI.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 46% chance of winning, OFI a 19% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI?
Record (3 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 3W | Draws 0 | OFI 0W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. OFI (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus's attack at 1.31x the league average against OFI's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Olympiakos Piraeus's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
46%
2.17
35%
2.85
19%
5.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.21
0.83
OFI xG
2.17
46%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
5.34
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
5%
21.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.5 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.83 for OFI, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Olympiakos Piraeus come into this having played 52 games, going 34W 13D 5L for 2.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, OFI sit at 1.21 PPG from 52 outings (15W 18D 19L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of OFI — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Olympiakos Piraeus's home form reads 18W 5D 2L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.36 PPG return.
Away from home, OFI have taken 1.24 points per game from 25 outings (7W 10D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.08 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 34W 13D 5L in their last 52 games (2.21 PPG), while OFI have gone 15W 18D 19L in their last 52 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or OFI away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.36 PPG; OFI away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, OFI in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Olympiakos Piraeus go into this on the back of 10 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2024, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Olympiakos Piraeus's record when hosting OFI specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
10
Olympiakos Piraeus
0
Draws
0
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 10, OFI have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when OFI 0-3 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 48%, OFI 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 48% (OFI).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; OFI in 32%; OFI in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 44% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 48% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, OFI in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Olympiakos Piraeus edge out OFI 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat OFI 2-1 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.38 xG and OFI 0.83 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.31 / defence 0.71 against OFI attack 1.14 / defence 0.91, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 46% | Draw 35% | OFI 19%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 44%, OFI 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
OFI's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.