Olympiakos Piraeus 2-0 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Atromitos travel to Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki to take on Olympiakos Piraeus. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 October 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Olympiakos Piraeus stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Atromitos have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Atromitos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Atromitos away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Olympiakos Piraeus) versus 1.40 (Atromitos). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Olympiakos Piraeus, 0 for Atromitos and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2021, ended 3–0 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Olympiakos Piraeus in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Atromitos in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 55% versus Atromitos 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 47% | Atromitos 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.63 xG and Atromitos 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.234 / defence 0.930 | Atromitos attack 1.346 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.192 / away 0.925. Atromitos have an above-average attack strength of 1.346 — the away xG of 1.16 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 31 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 31 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 46% | Draw 30% | Atromitos 24%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Atromitos 4.17. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 80% | Atromitos 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 46% | Draw 30% | Atromitos 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.63 / Atromitos 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.234 / def 0.930 | Atromitos attack 1.346 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.192 / away 0.925 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Atromitos xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos?
Olympiakos Piraeus 2 - 0 Atromitos.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 46% chance of winning, Atromitos a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos?
Record (2 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 1W | Draws 1 | Atromitos 0W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Atromitos (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus's attack at 1.23x the league average against Atromitos's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus Olympiakos Piraeus's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
46%
2.19
30%
3.32
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.79
1.16
Atromitos xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
20%
5.11
Win to Nil
14%
6.97
5%
21.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.6 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 1.16 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Olympiakos Piraeus's recent record stands at 25W 9D 4L from 38 games, a 2.21 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Atromitos, meanwhile, have gone 10W 11D 17L across 38 games — 1.08 PPG, with W-L-D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Atromitos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 1.13 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Atromitos heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Olympiakos Piraeus have managed 14W 4D 1L from 19 games — 2.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atromitos's away record stands at 3W 6D 10L across 19 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.11 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
Atromitos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 25W 9D 4L in their last 38 games (2.21 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 10W 11D 17L in their last 38 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Atromitos away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.42 PPG; Atromitos away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Atromitos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Atromitos in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Olympiakos Piraeus's record when hosting Atromitos specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Olympiakos Piraeus
3
Draws
0
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 7, Atromitos have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Atromitos 0-2 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 58%, Atromitos 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 53% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Atromitos in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Atromitos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 47% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 53% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Olympiakos Piraeus cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Atromitos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Atromitos 2-0 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.63 xG and Atromitos 1.16 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Atromitos landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.23 / defence 0.93 against Atromitos attack 1.35 / defence 1.11, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 46% | Draw 30% | Atromitos 24%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 47%, Atromitos 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Atromitos's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.