Olympiakos Piraeus 5-1 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Asteras Tripolis make the trip to Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki to face Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Wednesday 2 March 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.20 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Asteras Tripolis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Asteras Tripolis's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Olympiakos Piraeus's 2.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Asteras Tripolis's 1.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Olympiakos Piraeus lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 2–0 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
Asteras Tripolis half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 42% versus Asteras Tripolis 29%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Olympiakos Piraeus 46% | Asteras Tripolis 21%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.23 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.192 / defence 0.729 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.786 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 0.980 / away 1.061. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating of 0.729 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 24 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 24 Asteras Tripolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 51% | Draw 30% | Asteras Tripolis 18%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.96 | Draw 3.33 | Asteras Tripolis 5.56. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Asteras Tripolis's lower xG of 0.61 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.83 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 30% | Asteras Tripolis 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Mar 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 51% | Draw 30% | Asteras Tripolis 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 32% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.23 / Asteras Tripolis 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.192 / def 0.729 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.786 / def 1.050 | league avg home 0.980 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Asteras Tripolis xG
32%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 2 March 2022 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis?
Olympiakos Piraeus 5 - 1 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 51% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 18% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Asteras Tripolis?
Record (1 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 1W | Draws 0 | Asteras Tripolis 0W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Asteras Tripolis in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus's attack at 1.19x the league average against Asteras Tripolis's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Asteras Tripolis's attack (0.79x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.61.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (17.5%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
51%
1.95
30%
3.30
18%
5.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
1.83
0.61
Asteras Tripolis xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
5.43
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.11
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
54%
1.84
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
28%
3.58
5%
18.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 9.7 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.6 | 11.9 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 7.3 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.61 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Olympiakos Piraeus come into this having played 24 games, going 19W 5D 0L for 2.58 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Asteras Tripolis sit at 1.46 PPG from 24 outings (10W 5D 9L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.12 PPG clear of Asteras Tripolis — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Olympiakos Piraeus's home form reads 10W 1D 0L across 11 games on their own ground, a 2.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Asteras Tripolis have taken 1.18 points per game from 11 outings (3W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.46 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 1.04 scored and 0.92 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Asteras Tripolis in 29%.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their games; Asteras Tripolis in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 19W 5D 0L in their last 24 games (2.58 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 10W 5D 9L in their last 24 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.82 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Asteras Tripolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their recent games, Asteras Tripolis in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 4 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Olympiakos Piraeus have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 5-0 on 28 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Asteras Tripolis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Olympiakos Piraeus
2
Draws
1
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Asteras Tripolis?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 7, Asteras Tripolis have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2026, when Asteras Tripolis 0-3 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Asteras Tripolis?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 36%, Asteras Tripolis 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Olympiakos Piraeus and 18% for Asteras Tripolis.
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 64% of their matches; Asteras Tripolis in 46%; Asteras Tripolis in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 36% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 18% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Olympiakos Piraeus run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Asteras Tripolis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Asteras Tripolis 5-1 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.23 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.61 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.19 / defence 0.73 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.79 / defence 1.05, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 51% | Draw 30% | Asteras Tripolis 18%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 46%, Asteras Tripolis 21%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.58 PPG against 1.46. Form held, and they took the win. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.