OFI 1-3 PAOK – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as OFI take on PAOK.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees PAOK travel to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis to take on OFI. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 October 2021, 16:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have gone 0W 4D 0L from 4 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAOK — All Games: 3W 0D 1L from 4 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 2.25 PPG. Last five: L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. PAOK have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. PAOK's 2.25 PPG return is 1.25 points per game ahead of OFI's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
OFI trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
PAOK trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 50% versus PAOK 25%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (OFI 25% | PAOK 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.07 xG and PAOK 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.034 / defence 1.280 | PAOK attack 0.953 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 0.976 / away 0.953. Data: 4 OFI games / 4 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 29% | Draw 37% | PAOK 34%. Fair-value odds: OFI 3.45 | Draw 2.70 | PAOK 2.94. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: OFI 50% | PAOK 25% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 29% | Draw 37% | PAOK 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 49% | xG OFI 1.07 / PAOK 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.034 / def 1.280 | PAOK attack 0.953 / def 1.060 | league avg home 0.976 / away 0.953 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.16
PAOK xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs PAOK kick off?
OFI vs PAOK kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs PAOK?
OFI 1 - 3 PAOK.
Where is OFI vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs PAOK part of?
OFI vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 29% chance of winning, PAOK a 34% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in OFI vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both OFI and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and PAOK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are OFI and PAOK in?
OFI (all comps): 0W-4D-0L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-D. PAOK (all comps): 3W-0D-1L in 4 | 2.25 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from OFI's attack rating (1.03) and PAOK's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAOK's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.42
37%
2.71
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
OFI xG
Total xG
2.23
1.16
PAOK xG
3.42
29%
Home win
2.71
37%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
9%
10.95
12%
8.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are OFI and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for OFI and 1.16 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
OFI come into this having played 4 games, going 0W 4D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, PAOK sit at 2.25 PPG from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L), a run that reads L-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for PAOK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PAOK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.25 PPG clear of OFI — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
OFI are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.25 scored and 0.50 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: PAOK in 25%.
Defensively: OFI have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; PAOK in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Early Season
PAOK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and PAOK in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 0W 4D 0L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while PAOK have gone 3W 0D 1L in their last 4 (2.25 PPG).
Have OFI or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, PAOK in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
PAOK have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Feb 2025, when PAOK won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting PAOK specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
OFI
2
Draws
6
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 2, PAOK have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did OFI and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when PAOK 3-0 OFI.
Who has won more matches between OFI and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
OFI see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 50%, PAOK 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for OFI and 25% for PAOK.
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; PAOK in 50%; OFI have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of OFI's recent matches and 25% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of OFI's recent games and 25% of PAOK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and PAOK tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, PAOK in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAOK cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over OFI.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat OFI 1-3 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.07 xG and PAOK 1.16 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. PAOK outscored their 1.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.03 / defence 1.28 against PAOK attack 0.95 / defence 1.06, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 29% | Draw 37% | PAOK 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual PAOK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 25%, PAOK 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
PAOK's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. OFI shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAOK scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.