OFI 1-3 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Olympiakos Piraeus travel to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis to take on OFI. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 December 2021, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, OFI have posted 2W 3D 1L at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Olympiakos Piraeus stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 5W 0D 0L from 5 away outings — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Olympiakos Piraeus's 2.80 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of OFI's 1.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
OFI in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 46% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 36% | Olympiakos Piraeus 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.14 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.961 / defence 1.096 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.167 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.096 / away 1.286. Data: 11 OFI games / 11 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 26% | Draw 26% | Olympiakos Piraeus 49%. Fair-value odds: OFI 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.04. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: OFI 50% | Olympiakos Piraeus 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 26% | Draw 26% | Olympiakos Piraeus 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG OFI 1.14 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.961 / def 1.096 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.167 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.096 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
OFI 1 - 3 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 26% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
OFI (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from OFI's attack rating (0.96) and Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Olympiakos Piraeus's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
26%
3.90
26%
3.87
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
OFI xG
Total xG
2.78
1.65
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
3.90
26%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
19%
5.19
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
5%
20.24
16%
6.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 10.2 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for OFI and 1.65 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 11 outings, OFI have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 4W 6D 1L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 9W 2D 0L from 11 games, 2.64 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against OFI.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, OFI have posted 1.60 PPG from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 away games — 3.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
OFI are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.82 scored and 0.73 conceded. Olympiakos Piraeus's attacking output running into OFI's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Olympiakos Piraeus in 64%.
Defensively: OFI have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 4W 6D 1L in their last 11 games (1.64 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 9W 2D 0L in their last 11 (2.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.60 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 3.00 PPG.
Have OFI or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the last 10 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2024, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting Olympiakos Piraeus specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
OFI
0
Draws
10
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 0, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 10, and 0 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when OFI 0-3 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 40%, Olympiakos Piraeus 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for OFI and 80% for Olympiakos Piraeus. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; OFI have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of OFI's games and 80% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of OFI's matches and 80% of Olympiakos Piraeus's.
Do OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Olympiakos Piraeus cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over OFI.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat OFI 1-3 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.14 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.65 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus outscored their 1.65 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.96 / defence 1.10 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.17 / defence 1.08, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 26% | Draw 26% | Olympiakos Piraeus 49%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 36%, Olympiakos Piraeus 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.64 PPG against 1.64. Form held, and they took the win. OFI (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.