OFI 1-0 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this OFI vs Asteras Tripolis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Relegation Round - 6 as OFI welcome Asteras Tripolis to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 May 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, OFI have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Asteras Tripolis — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Asteras Tripolis away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (OFI) versus 0.80 (Asteras Tripolis). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
OFI trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Asteras Tripolis trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 58% versus Asteras Tripolis 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (OFI 52% | Asteras Tripolis 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.52 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.141 / defence 1.320 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.827 / defence 1.347. League average goals — home 0.986 / away 1.050. Asteras Tripolis bring a strong defensive rating of 1.347 — this is suppressing OFI's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 OFI games / 26 Asteras Tripolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 46% | Draw 26% | Asteras Tripolis 29%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Asteras Tripolis 3.45. OFI hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates OFI as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: OFI 80% | Asteras Tripolis 40% BTTS from recent games.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 6 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 46% | Draw 26% | Asteras Tripolis 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG OFI 1.52 / Asteras Tripolis 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.141 / def 1.320 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.827 / def 1.347 | league avg home 0.986 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: OFI (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Asteras Tripolis xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
OFI vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Asteras Tripolis?
OFI 1 - 0 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is OFI vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
OFI vs Asteras Tripolis is a Relegation Round - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 46% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both OFI and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Asteras Tripolis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are OFI and Asteras Tripolis in?
OFI (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from OFI's attack rating (1.14) and Asteras Tripolis's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Asteras Tripolis's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
46%
2.19
26%
3.90
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
OFI xG
Total xG
2.66
1.15
Asteras Tripolis xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
15%
6.89
6%
15.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.1 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are OFI and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for OFI and 1.15 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
OFI come into this having played 31 games, going 10W 11D 10L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, Asteras Tripolis sit at 1.29 PPG from 31 outings (11W 7D 13L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: OFI on 1.32 PPG, Asteras Tripolis on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
OFI's home form reads 5W 4D 6L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Asteras Tripolis have taken 1.13 points per game from 15 outings (4W 5D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
OFI are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 1.00 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Asteras Tripolis in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Current Season
Asteras Tripolis
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 10W 11D 10L in their last 31 games (1.32 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 11W 7D 13L in their last 31 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
OFI's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.27 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 1.13 PPG.
Have OFI or Asteras Tripolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Asteras Tripolis in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 11 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jan 2026, when OFI won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting Asteras Tripolis specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
OFI
2
Draws
6
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Asteras Tripolis?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 2, Asteras Tripolis have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2026, when OFI 4-0 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Asteras Tripolis?
Asteras Tripolis have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 67%, Asteras Tripolis 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (OFI) and 27% (Asteras Tripolis).
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis in 47%; Asteras Tripolis in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of OFI's recent matches and 40% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of OFI's recent games and 27% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as OFI edge out Asteras Tripolis 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI beat Asteras Tripolis 1-0 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Relegation Round - 6, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.52 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.15 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Asteras Tripolis landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.14 / defence 1.32 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.83 / defence 1.35, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 46% | Draw 26% | Asteras Tripolis 29%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 52%, Asteras Tripolis 26%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OFI 1.32 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OFI win broke the near-deadlock. OFI (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.