OFI 1-1 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 14 as OFI welcome Aris Thessalonikis to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis. Kick-off is set for Thursday 16 December 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
OFI — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis this season: 2W 3D 2L from 7 home games — 1.29 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Aris Thessalonikis stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 4W 0D 3L from 7 away outings — 1.71 PPG. Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (OFI) versus 1.90 (Aris Thessalonikis). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
OFI in-play and half-time data (12 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis in-play and half-time data (12 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 50% versus Aris Thessalonikis 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 42% | Aris Thessalonikis 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 0.97 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.959 / defence 1.198 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.781 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.061 / away 1.262. Data: 12 OFI games / 13 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 30% | Draw 29% | Aris Thessalonikis 41%. Fair-value odds: OFI 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Aris Thessalonikis 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: OFI 57% | Aris Thessalonikis 43%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Thursday 16 Dec 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 30% | Draw 29% | Aris Thessalonikis 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG OFI 0.97 / Aris Thessalonikis 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.959 / def 1.198 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.781 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.061 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Aris Thessalonikis xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 15:00 on Thursday 16 December 2021 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
OFI 1 - 1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 30% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both OFI and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Aris Thessalonikis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are OFI and Aris Thessalonikis in?
OFI (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from OFI's attack rating (0.96) and Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Aris Thessalonikis's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
30%
3.33
29%
3.41
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
OFI xG
Total xG
2.15
1.18
Aris Thessalonikis xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
9%
10.85
15%
6.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 13.7 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are OFI and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for OFI and 1.18 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 12 outings, OFI have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 4W 6D 2L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 7W 1D 4L from 12 games, 1.83 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: OFI on 1.50 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis on 1.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, OFI have posted 1.29 PPG from 7 outings (2W 3D 2L).
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 4W 0D 3L from 7 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
OFI are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.25 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: OFI have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Aris Thessalonikis in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 4W 6D 2L in their last 12 games (1.50 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 7W 1D 4L in their last 12 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Aris Thessalonikis's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.29 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.71 PPG.
Have OFI or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Aris Thessalonikis have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Oct 2025, when OFI won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting Aris Thessalonikis specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
OFI
1
Draws
4
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 5, Aris Thessalonikis have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 3-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Aris Thessalonikis?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 57%, Aris Thessalonikis 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (OFI) and 43% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; OFI have failed to score in 29% of games; Aris Thessalonikis in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of OFI's recent matches and 43% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of OFI's recent games and 43% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
OFI and Aris Thessalonikis share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI and Aris Thessalonikis finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 0.97 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.18 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.96 / defence 1.20 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.78 / defence 0.95, drawn from 12/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 30% | Draw 29% | Aris Thessalonikis 41%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 42%, Aris Thessalonikis 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (12 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (12 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OFI 1.50 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.