Levadiakos 0-3 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Levadiakos take on Volos NFC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Volos NFC travel to Stadio Levadias to take on Levadiakos. The game is scheduled for Monday 6 February 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Levadiakos have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Levadias, Levadiakos have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Volos NFC away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Levadiakos 0.70 PPG, Volos NFC 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Levadiakos, 1 for Volos NFC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Volos NFC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Levadiakos in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Volos NFC in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 45% versus Volos NFC 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 35% | Volos NFC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 0.78 xG and Volos NFC 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.676 / defence 1.153 | Volos NFC attack 0.925 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.172 / away 0.988. Levadiakos's attack strength of 0.676 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Levadiakos games / 46 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 23% | Draw 40% | Volos NFC 37%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 4.35 | Draw 2.50 | Volos NFC 2.70. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 23% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.84 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 50% | Volos NFC 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Levadias • Kick-off: Monday 6 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 23% | Draw 40% | Volos NFC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 39% | xG Levadiakos 0.78 / Volos NFC 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.676 / def 1.153 | Volos NFC attack 0.925 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.172 / away 0.988 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Volos NFC xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Volos NFC kick off?
Levadiakos vs Volos NFC kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 6 February 2023 at Stadio Levadias.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs Volos NFC?
Levadiakos 0 - 3 Volos NFC.
Where is Levadiakos vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Levadias.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Volos NFC part of?
Levadiakos vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 23% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 37% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Levadiakos and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Volos NFC?
Record (1 meetings): Levadiakos 0W | Draws 0 | Volos NFC 1W.
What form are Levadiakos and Volos NFC in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Volos NFC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Levadiakos's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Volos NFC's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.78. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Levadiakos's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
23%
4.40
40%
2.50
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
1.84
1.05
Volos NFC xG
4.40
23%
Home win
2.50
40%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
8%
12.62
17%
5.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 16.8 | 8.8 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.1 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.05 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Levadiakos's recent record stands at 2W 7D 11L from 20 games, a 0.65 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Volos NFC, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 7L across 20 games — 1.45 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Volos NFC by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Levadiakos heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Levadiakos have managed 2W 4D 4L from 10 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Volos NFC's away record stands at 4W 4D 2L across 10 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Volos NFC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Levadiakos are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.20 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Defensively: Volos NFC in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Blended
Volos NFC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 2W 7D 11L in their last 20 games (0.65 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 8W 5D 7L in their last 20 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Volos NFC away?
Volos NFC's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.00 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Levadiakos or Volos NFC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levadiakos have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Volos NFC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Levadiakos and Volos NFC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Levadiakos have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Feb 2023, when Volos NFC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Levadiakos's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Levadiakos
0
Draws
3
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 7, Volos NFC have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Volos NFC 0-3 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Volos NFC?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 50%, Volos NFC 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Levadiakos and 40% for Volos NFC.
On the defensive side: Volos NFC in 50%; Levadiakos have failed to score in 40% of games; Volos NFC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Volos NFC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 30% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Levadiakos's recent games and 40% of Volos NFC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and Volos NFC tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Volos NFC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Levadiakos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC beat Levadiakos 0-3 at Stadio Levadias, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 0.78 xG and Volos NFC 1.05 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Volos NFC outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 0.68 / defence 1.15 against Volos NFC attack 0.93 / defence 0.99, drawn from 20/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 23% | Draw 40% | Volos NFC 37%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual Volos NFC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 35%, Volos NFC 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Volos NFC's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Volos NFC arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.65. Form held, and they took the win. Levadiakos (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Volos NFC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.