Levadiakos 1-1 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levadiakos vs PAOK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PAOK make the trip to Stadio Levadias to face Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 October 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 0W 2D 4L from 6 games (0.33 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.33 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAOK have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. PAOK have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAOK's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
PAOK arrive in superior form — a 1.17 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.33) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Levadiakos — key trading statistics (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
PAOK — key trading statistics (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 83% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 33% versus PAOK 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Levadiakos 33% | PAOK 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 0.87 xG and PAOK 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.834 / defence 1.115 | PAOK attack 0.930 / defence 0.810. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.044. Data: 6 Levadiakos games / 32 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 26% | Draw 37% | PAOK 37%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 3.85 | Draw 2.70 | PAOK 2.70. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 33% | PAOK 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Levadias • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 26% | Draw 37% | PAOK 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 41% | xG Levadiakos 0.87 / PAOK 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.834 / def 1.115 | PAOK attack 0.930 / def 0.810 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.044 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.08
PAOK xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs PAOK kick off?
Levadiakos vs PAOK kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Stadio Levadias.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs PAOK?
Levadiakos 1 - 1 PAOK.
Where is Levadiakos vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Levadias.
What competition is Levadiakos vs PAOK part of?
Levadiakos vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 26% chance of winning, PAOK a 37% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Levadiakos and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and PAOK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Levadiakos and PAOK in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 0W-2D-4L in 6 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. PAOK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Levadiakos's attack rating (0.83) and PAOK's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 0.87 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (0.93x) against Levadiakos's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 6/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
26%
3.86
37%
2.72
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
1.95
1.08
PAOK xG
3.86
26%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
9%
11.40
16%
6.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 15.4 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.08 for PAOK, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Levadiakos come into this having played 6 games, going 0W 2D 4L for 0.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, PAOK sit at 1.83 PPG from 6 outings (3W 2D 1L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for PAOK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PAOK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Levadiakos are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.00 scored and 0.67 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Early Season
PAOK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and PAOK in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 0W 2D 4L in their last 6 games (0.33 PPG), while PAOK have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 (1.83 PPG).
Have Levadiakos or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levadiakos have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, PAOK in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: PAOK have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won 3-0 on 15 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levadiakos have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Levadiakos
1
Draws
5
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and PAOK?
From 6 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 0, PAOK have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when PAOK 3-0 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Levadiakos see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 83% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 33%, PAOK 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Levadiakos and 33% for PAOK.
On the defensive side: PAOK in 50%; Levadiakos have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 50% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Levadiakos's recent games and 33% of PAOK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and PAOK tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, PAOK in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Levadiakos and PAOK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levadiakos and PAOK finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Levadias, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 0.87 xG and PAOK 1.08 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 0.83 / defence 1.11 against PAOK attack 0.93 / defence 0.81, drawn from 6/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 26% | Draw 37% | PAOK 37%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 33%, PAOK 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
PAOK's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.