Lamia 1-3 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamia at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamia vs Panathinaikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lamia host Panathinaikos at Panthessaliko Stadio in Super League 1, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 22 November 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lamia — All Games: 2W 3D 4L from 9 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.22 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamia at Panthessaliko Stadio this season: 0W 2D 2L from 4 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Panthessaliko Stadio this season.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panathinaikos have recorded 3W 2D 4L from 9 outings — 1.22 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panathinaikos's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 3L across 4 road games this term (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 1.22 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Lamia) versus 1.22 (Panathinaikos). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Lamia in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Panathinaikos in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 56% versus Panathinaikos 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 56% | Panathinaikos 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.08 xG and Panathinaikos 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.902 / defence 1.322 | Panathinaikos attack 0.599 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.054 / away 1.248. Data: 9 Lamia games / 9 Panathinaikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 35% | Draw 34% | Panathinaikos 31%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | Panathinaikos 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lamia are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Lamia 75% | Panathinaikos 25%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Monday 22 Nov 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 35% | Draw 34% | Panathinaikos 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Lamia 1.08 / Panathinaikos 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.902 / def 1.322 | Panathinaikos attack 0.599 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.054 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Lamia (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Panathinaikos xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs Panathinaikos kick off?
Lamia vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 22 November 2021 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Panathinaikos?
Lamia 1 - 3 Panathinaikos.
Where is Lamia vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Lamia vs Panathinaikos part of?
Lamia vs Panathinaikos is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 35% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 31% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Lamia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Lamia and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Panathinaikos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lamia and Panathinaikos in?
Lamia (all comps): 2W-3D-4L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.22 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Panathinaikos (all comps): 3W-2D-4L in 9 | 1.22 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lamia's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Panathinaikos's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Panathinaikos's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamia Win
35%
2.82
34%
2.96
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.06
0.99
Panathinaikos xG
2.82
35%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
13%
7.58
11%
9.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 12.5 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Lamia and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Lamia and 0.99 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Panathinaikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lamia come into this having played 9 games, going 2W 3D 4L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-W. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Panathinaikos sit at 1.22 PPG from 9 outings (3W 2D 4L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Panathinaikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamia on 1.00 PPG, Panathinaikos on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lamia's home form reads 0W 2D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.50 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.00 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Panathinaikos have taken 0.25 points per game from 4 outings (0W 1D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Panathinaikos's season.
The Goals Picture
Lamia are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Blended
Panathinaikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 games (1.00 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Panathinaikos away?
Lamia's home record (0.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 0.50 PPG; Panathinaikos away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Lamia or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamia have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lamia and Panathinaikos runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2024, when Panathinaikos won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamia's record when hosting Panathinaikos specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Lamia
1
Draws
8
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Panathinaikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Lamia have won 1, Panathinaikos have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Panathinaikos last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Lamia 3-1 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Panathinaikos?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 75%, Panathinaikos 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Lamia) and 25% (Panathinaikos).
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play Panathinaikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Lamia's recent matches and 25% of Panathinaikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs Panathinaikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Lamia's recent games and 25% of Panathinaikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and Panathinaikos tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Panathinaikos in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panathinaikos cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat Lamia 1-3 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.08 xG and Panathinaikos 0.99 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Panathinaikos outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.90 / defence 1.32 against Panathinaikos attack 0.60 / defence 1.13, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 35% | Draw 34% | Panathinaikos 31%, with Lamia to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Panathinaikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 56%, Panathinaikos 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Panathinaikos's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamia 1.00 PPG, Panathinaikos 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panathinaikos win broke the near-deadlock. Lamia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.