Lamia 0-3 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (65%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lamia face Olympiakos Piraeus.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Olympiakos Piraeus travel to Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias to take on Lamia. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 February 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamia stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamia's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Olympiakos Piraeus — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Olympiakos Piraeus — 1.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Olympiakos Piraeus, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Lamia.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2022, ended 0–2 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
It is worth noting that Olympiakos Piraeus have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Lamia trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 40% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 42% | Olympiakos Piraeus 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 0.66 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.738 / defence 1.531 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.212 / defence 0.721. League average goals — home 1.235 / away 1.037. Lamia's attack strength of 0.738 is below the league average — the 0.66 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.721 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Olympiakos Piraeus have an above-average attack strength of 1.212 — the away xG of 1.92 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Lamia games / 48 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 9% | Draw 26% | Olympiakos Piraeus 65%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 11.11 | Draw 3.85 | Olympiakos Piraeus 1.54. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (65%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lamia 50% | Olympiakos Piraeus 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 9% | Draw 26% | Olympiakos Piraeus 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 44% | xG Lamia 0.66 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.738 / def 1.531 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.212 / def 0.721 | league avg home 1.235 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.66
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
44%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 19 February 2023 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Lamia 0 - 3 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 9% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 65% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (3 meetings): Lamia 0W | Draws 0 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3W.
What form are Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Lamia (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lamia's attack rating (0.74) and Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating (0.72), the model arrives at 0.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Olympiakos Piraeus's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 1.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.3%), 1-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
9%
11.11
26%
3.79
65%
1.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
14.0%
Away win
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.66
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.58
1.92
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
11.11
9%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
1.55
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
15%
6.85
52%
1.93
Win to Nil
1%
76.09
34%
2.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 14.6 | 14.0 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 0.66 expected goals for Lamia and 1.92 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Lamia have picked up 0.74 PPG on a 8W 18D 31L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 38W 14D 5L from 57 games, 2.25 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 1.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamia.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lamia have posted 0.64 PPG from 28 outings (3W 9D 16L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 16W 9D 3L from 28 away games — 2.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lamia are averaging 0.63 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.81 scored and 0.68 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 8W 18D 31L in their last 57 games (0.74 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 38W 14D 5L in their last 57 (2.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 0.64 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.04 PPG.
Have Lamia or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamia have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamia's record when hosting Olympiakos Piraeus specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Lamia
0
Draws
9
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, Lamia have won 1, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 21 December 2024, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 54%, Olympiakos Piraeus 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lamia) and 46% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus in 46%; Lamia have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Lamia's recent matches and 50% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lamia's recent games and 46% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Olympiakos Piraeus run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Lamia 0-3 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 0.66 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.92 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus outscored their 1.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.74 / defence 1.53 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.21 / defence 0.72, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 9% | Draw 26% | Olympiakos Piraeus 65%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 42%, Olympiakos Piraeus 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 0.74. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lamia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.