Lamia 0-0 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Asteras Tripolis at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Asteras Tripolis travel to Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias to take on Lamia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 September 2022, 15:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Lamia have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Lamia have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamia's home record at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Asteras Tripolis — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Asteras Tripolis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Asteras Tripolis away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lamia 1.00 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Lamia have won 2, Asteras Tripolis 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2022, ended 2–0 with Lamia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Lamia trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
Asteras Tripolis trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 43% versus Asteras Tripolis 34%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lamia 43% | Asteras Tripolis 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.28 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.824 / defence 1.302 | Asteras Tripolis attack 1.227 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 0.977. Asteras Tripolis bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing Lamia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Asteras Tripolis have an above-average attack strength of 1.227 — the away xG of 1.56 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 28 Lamia games / 28 Asteras Tripolis games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lamia 31% | Draw 25% | Asteras Tripolis 44%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Asteras Tripolis 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Asteras Tripolis as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Asteras Tripolis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Lamia 50% | Asteras Tripolis 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 31% | Draw 25% | Asteras Tripolis 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Lamia 1.28 / Asteras Tripolis 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.824 / def 1.302 | Asteras Tripolis attack 1.227 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.270 / away 0.977 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Asteras Tripolis xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 15:45 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis?
Lamia 0 - 0 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 31% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Lamia and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Asteras Tripolis?
Record (3 meetings): Lamia 2W | Draws 0 | Asteras Tripolis 1W.
What form are Lamia and Asteras Tripolis in?
Lamia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lamia's attack at 0.82x the league average against Asteras Tripolis's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Asteras Tripolis's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (28/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
31%
3.21
25%
4.00
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.84
1.56
Asteras Tripolis xG
3.21
31%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
21%
4.76
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
7%
15.28
12%
8.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.1 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.7 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Lamia and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Lamia and 1.56 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, Lamia have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 7W 10D 18L record — D-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lamia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Asteras Tripolis's form line: 11W 10D 14L from 35 games, 1.23 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamia on 0.89 PPG, Asteras Tripolis on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lamia have posted 0.65 PPG from 17 outings (2W 5D 10L).
On the road, Asteras Tripolis have gone 4W 6D 7L from 17 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Asteras Tripolis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamia are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 1.03 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Asteras Tripolis in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Early Season
Asteras Tripolis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 7W 10D 18L in their last 35 games (0.89 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 11W 10D 14L in their last 35 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
Asteras Tripolis's away record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 0.65 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Lamia or Asteras Tripolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamia have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Asteras Tripolis in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jan 2023, when Asteras Tripolis won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamia's record when hosting Asteras Tripolis specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lamia
3
Draws
3
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Asteras Tripolis?
From 10 meetings on record, Lamia have won 4, Asteras Tripolis have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2025, when Asteras Tripolis 1-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Asteras Tripolis?
Lamia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Asteras Tripolis see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 53%, Asteras Tripolis 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Lamia) and 29% (Asteras Tripolis).
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis in 41%; Lamia have failed to score in 47% of games; Asteras Tripolis in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Lamia's recent matches and 41% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Lamia's recent games and 29% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lamia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamia and Asteras Tripolis finished level at 0-0 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.28 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.56 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lamia fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Asteras Tripolis landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.82 / defence 1.30 against Asteras Tripolis attack 1.23 / defence 1.22, drawn from 28/28 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 31% | Draw 25% | Asteras Tripolis 44%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 43%, Asteras Tripolis 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 51% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamia 0.89 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.