Ionikos 0-0 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ionikos at 35%, yet in-form PAS Giannina provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ionikos vs PAS Giannina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 3 as Ionikos welcome PAS Giannina to Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias. Kick-off is set for Thursday 23 September 2021 at 16:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Ionikos have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Ionikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAS Giannina stand at 2W 0D 0L from 2 Super League 1 matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 2 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. PAS Giannina have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour PAS Giannina — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (3.00 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using overall form). Ionikos's 0% and PAS Giannina's 0% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ionikos 0.88 xG and PAS Giannina 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ionikos attack 0.959 / defence 1.025 | PAS Giannina attack 0.867 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 0.906 / away 0.895. Data: 2 Ionikos games / 2 PAS Giannina games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ionikos 35% | Draw 34% | PAS Giannina 30%. Fair-value odds: Ionikos 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | PAS Giannina 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.68. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.68 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — PAS Giannina's lower xG of 0.80 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ionikos at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form PAS Giannina (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ionikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.68 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 24% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ionikos vs PAS Giannina | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias • Kick-off: Thursday 23 Sep 2021, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ionikos 35% | Draw 34% | PAS Giannina 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 32% | xG Ionikos 0.88 / PAS Giannina 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Ionikos attack 0.959 / def 1.025 | PAS Giannina attack 0.867 / def 1.016 | league avg home 0.906 / away 0.895 • Poisson stance: Ionikos (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Ionikos xG
Expected Goals
0.80
PAS Giannina xG
32%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ionikos vs PAS Giannina kick off?
Ionikos vs PAS Giannina kicked off at 16:15 on Thursday 23 September 2021 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What was the final score in Ionikos vs PAS Giannina?
Ionikos 0 - 0 PAS Giannina.
Where is Ionikos vs PAS Giannina being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What competition is Ionikos vs PAS Giannina part of?
Ionikos vs PAS Giannina is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Ionikos vs PAS Giannina?
Our statistical model gives Ionikos a 35% chance of winning, PAS Giannina a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Ionikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ionikos vs PAS Giannina?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Ionikos and PAS Giannina will score (BTTS).
Will Ionikos vs PAS Giannina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and PAS Giannina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ionikos and PAS Giannina in?
Ionikos (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W. PAS Giannina (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ionikos's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against PAS Giannina's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. The same calculation in reverse, PAS Giannina's attack versus Ionikos's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 20.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ionikos Win
35%
2.83
34%
2.92
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Ionikos xG
Total xG
1.68
0.80
PAS Giannina xG
2.83
35%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.11
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
16%
6.26
13%
7.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.7 | 14.8 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.1 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ionikos vs PAS Giannina?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.4%.
How many goals are Ionikos and PAS Giannina expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Ionikos and 0.80 for PAS Giannina, a combined total of 1.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Ionikos vs PAS Giannina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ionikos come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 0D 1L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W. It's still early in the season for Ionikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, PAS Giannina sit at 3.00 PPG from 2 outings (2W 0D 0L), a run that reads W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for PAS Giannina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PAS Giannina carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Ionikos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Ionikos are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; PAS Giannina are on 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ionikos have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; PAS Giannina in 0%.
Defensively: Ionikos have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; PAS Giannina in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ionikos
Early Season
PAS Giannina
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ionikos and PAS Giannina in coming into this match?
Ionikos have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while PAS Giannina have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
Have Ionikos or PAS Giannina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ionikos have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, PAS Giannina in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ionikos and PAS Giannina runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ionikos's record when hosting PAS Giannina specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Ionikos
3
Draws
2
PAS Giannina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and PAS Giannina?
From 5 meetings on record, Ionikos have won 0, PAS Giannina have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ionikos and PAS Giannina last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2023, when Ionikos 0-1 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between Ionikos and PAS Giannina?
PAS Giannina have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ionikos home games / PAS Giannina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ionikos play PAS Giannina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Ionikos's recent matches and 0% of PAS Giannina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ionikos vs PAS Giannina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ionikos's recent games and 0% of PAS Giannina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Ionikos's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias, Regular Season - 3, as Ionikos and PAS Giannina drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ionikos 0.88 xG and PAS Giannina 0.80 xG, a combined 1.68. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ionikos fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ionikos attack 0.96 / defence 1.02 against PAS Giannina attack 0.87 / defence 1.02, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ionikos 35% | Draw 34% | PAS Giannina 30%, with Ionikos to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 50% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ionikos 50%, PAS Giannina 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, PAS Giannina arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ionikos conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. PAS Giannina managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.