Ionikos 0-3 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ionikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus make the trip to Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias to face Ionikos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 February 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Ionikos (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ionikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ionikos's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 3L across 9 games at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias this term (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Ionikos are significantly better at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias than their overall form suggests.
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: D D W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record: 7W 3D 0L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Olympiakos Piraeus arrive in superior form — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Ionikos, 1 for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Ionikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ionikos 50% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ionikos 40% | Olympiakos Piraeus 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ionikos 0.75 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ionikos attack 0.882 / defence 1.093 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.032 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 0.970 / away 1.158. Data: 20 Ionikos games / 20 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ionikos 21% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 50%. Fair-value odds: Ionikos 4.76 | Draw 3.45 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.00. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: Ionikos 56% | Olympiakos Piraeus 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ionikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ionikos 21% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 39% | xG Ionikos 0.75 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Ionikos attack 0.882 / def 1.093 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.032 / def 0.879 | league avg home 0.970 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Ionikos xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ionikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Ionikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What was the final score in Ionikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Ionikos 0 - 3 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Ionikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What competition is Ionikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Ionikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Ionikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Ionikos a 21% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 50% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ionikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Ionikos and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Ionikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (1 meetings): Ionikos 0W | Draws 0 | Olympiakos Piraeus 1W.
What form are Ionikos and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Ionikos (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ionikos's attack rating (0.88) and Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 0.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.03x) against Ionikos's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
21%
4.66
29%
3.48
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Ionikos xG
Total xG
2.06
1.31
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
4.66
21%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
47%
2.12
Win to Nil
6%
17.22
23%
4.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 16.7 | 10.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.5 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ionikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Ionikos and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Ionikos and 1.31 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Ionikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ionikos come into this having played 20 games, going 4W 6D 10L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Ionikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Olympiakos Piraeus sit at 2.50 PPG from 20 outings (15W 5D 0L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.60 PPG clear of Ionikos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Ionikos's home form reads 3W 3D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.90 PPG overall — Ionikos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Olympiakos Piraeus have taken 2.33 points per game from 9 outings (6W 3D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ionikos are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.70 scored and 0.55 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ionikos
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ionikos and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Ionikos have gone 4W 6D 10L in their last 20 games (0.90 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 15W 5D 0L in their last 20 (2.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ionikos at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ionikos at home: 1.33 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Ionikos or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ionikos have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Olympiakos Piraeus have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 0-3 on 6 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ionikos have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ionikos
0
Draws
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 4 meetings on record, Ionikos have won 0, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ionikos and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 3 January 2023, when Ionikos 0-2 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Ionikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ionikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ionikos 56%, Olympiakos Piraeus 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Ionikos) and 56% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus in 44%; Ionikos have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ionikos home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ionikos play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Ionikos's games and 56% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ionikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Ionikos's recent games and 56% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ionikos and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Ionikos have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Olympiakos Piraeus run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Ionikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Ionikos 0-3 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ionikos 0.75 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.31 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus outscored their 1.31 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ionikos attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.03 / defence 0.88, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ionikos 21% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 50%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ionikos 40%, Olympiakos Piraeus 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ionikos's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 0.90. Form held, and they took the win. Ionikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.