Ionikos 1-1 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Ionikos take on Asteras Tripolis.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ionikos and Asteras Tripolis meet at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias in Super League 1, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Ionikos (all games): 2W 3D 4L across 9 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.22 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 9 games (44%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ionikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias, Ionikos have gone 1W 2D 1L this season (4 games, 1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
Asteras Tripolis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 3D 4L from 9 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.56 per game is modest, conceding 0.89 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Asteras Tripolis away from home this season: 1W 3D 1L from 5 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 5 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Ionikos — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Asteras Tripolis — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Ionikos 33% | Asteras Tripolis 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ionikos 33% | Asteras Tripolis 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ionikos 0.80 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ionikos attack 0.798 / defence 1.019 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.677 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.056 / away 1.171. Ionikos's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Ionikos games / 9 Asteras Tripolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ionikos 30% | Draw 39% | Asteras Tripolis 30%. Fair-value odds: Ionikos 3.33 | Draw 2.56 | Asteras Tripolis 3.33. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.61. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.61 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Ionikos's lower xG of 0.80 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.61 combined xG gives a 22% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Ionikos 50% | Asteras Tripolis 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ionikos vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ionikos 30% | Draw 39% | Asteras Tripolis 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 33% | xG Ionikos 0.80 / Asteras Tripolis 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Ionikos attack 0.798 / def 1.019 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.677 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.056 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Ionikos xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Asteras Tripolis xG
33%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ionikos vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
Ionikos vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What was the final score in Ionikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Ionikos 1 - 1 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is Ionikos vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What competition is Ionikos vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
Ionikos vs Asteras Tripolis is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Ionikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives Ionikos a 30% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 30% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Ionikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Ionikos and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will Ionikos vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and Asteras Tripolis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ionikos and Asteras Tripolis in?
Ionikos (all comps): 2W-3D-4L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.22 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 2W-3D-4L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.56 / GA 0.89 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ionikos's attack rating (0.80) and Asteras Tripolis's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.80 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Asteras Tripolis's attack (0.68x) against Ionikos's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 21.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.6%), 0-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.32
39%
2.53
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Ionikos xG
Total xG
1.61
0.81
Asteras Tripolis xG
3.32
30%
Home win
2.53
39%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.06
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
45%
2.23
Win to Nil
13%
7.44
14%
7.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.0 | 16.1 | 6.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.9 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ionikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.7%.
How many goals are Ionikos and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Ionikos and 0.81 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 1.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Ionikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 9 outings, Ionikos have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 2W 3D 4L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ionikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Asteras Tripolis's form line: 2W 3D 4L from 9 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-L. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Ionikos against 1.00 for Asteras Tripolis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ionikos have posted 1.25 PPG from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L).
On the road, Asteras Tripolis have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Ionikos are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 0.56 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Ionikos have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ionikos
Blended
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ionikos and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
Ionikos have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 games (1.00 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ionikos at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
Ionikos's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ionikos at home: 1.25 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Ionikos or Asteras Tripolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ionikos have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Asteras Tripolis in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Ionikos have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ionikos have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Asteras Tripolis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Ionikos
1
Draws
1
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and Asteras Tripolis?
From 6 meetings on record, Ionikos have won 4, Asteras Tripolis have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ionikos and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when Ionikos 1-0 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between Ionikos and Asteras Tripolis?
Ionikos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ionikos tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Asteras Tripolis see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ionikos 50%, Asteras Tripolis 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Ionikos and 25% for Asteras Tripolis.
On the defensive side: Ionikos keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Asteras Tripolis in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ionikos home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ionikos play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ionikos's recent matches and 50% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ionikos vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Ionikos's recent games and 25% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ionikos and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
Ionikos have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ionikos and Asteras Tripolis share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ionikos and Asteras Tripolis finished level at 1-1 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ionikos 0.80 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.81 xG, a combined 1.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ionikos attack 0.80 / defence 1.02 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.68 / defence 0.95, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ionikos 30% | Draw 39% | Asteras Tripolis 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 28% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ionikos 33%, Asteras Tripolis 22%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ionikos's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ionikos 1.00 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.