Atromitos 2-1 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atromitos at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atromitos vs Volos NFC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Volos NFC make the trip to Stadio Peristeriou to face Atromitos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Thursday 3 March 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Atromitos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Peristeriou, Atromitos have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Volos NFC (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Volos NFC's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Atromitos against 1.40 for Volos NFC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Atromitos half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Volos NFC half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 46% versus Volos NFC 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 54% | Volos NFC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.53 xG and Volos NFC 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 1.174 / defence 1.369 | Volos NFC attack 0.999 / defence 1.290. League average goals — home 1.008 / away 1.059. Volos NFC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.290 — this is suppressing Atromitos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Atromitos games / 24 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 40% | Draw 24% | Volos NFC 36%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | Volos NFC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atromitos at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atromitos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Atromitos 50% | Volos NFC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Thursday 3 Mar 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 40% | Draw 24% | Volos NFC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Atromitos 1.53 / Volos NFC 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 1.174 / def 1.369 | Volos NFC attack 0.999 / def 1.290 | league avg home 1.008 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Volos NFC xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs Volos NFC kick off?
Atromitos vs Volos NFC kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 3 March 2022 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs Volos NFC?
Atromitos 2 - 1 Volos NFC.
Where is Atromitos vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs Volos NFC part of?
Atromitos vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 40% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Atromitos and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Volos NFC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atromitos and Volos NFC in?
Atromitos (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Volos NFC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Atromitos's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Volos NFC's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. Flip it around — Volos NFC's attack (1.00x) against Atromitos's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
40%
2.53
24%
4.10
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.98
1.45
Volos NFC xG
2.53
40%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
9%
10.77
8%
12.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.3 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Atromitos and 1.45 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Atromitos come into this having played 24 games, going 5W 5D 14L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Volos NFC sit at 1.21 PPG from 24 outings (8W 5D 11L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.83 PPG for Atromitos against 1.21 for Volos NFC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Atromitos's home form reads 4W 2D 5L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.83 PPG overall — Atromitos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Volos NFC have taken 0.91 points per game from 11 outings (2W 4D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atromitos are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.42 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Volos NFC in 67%.
Last 24 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Blended
Volos NFC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 5W 5D 14L in their last 24 games (0.83 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 8W 5D 11L in their last 24 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Volos NFC away?
Atromitos's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.27 PPG; Volos NFC away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atromitos won 0-3 on 19 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atromitos have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Volos NFC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Atromitos
3
Draws
4
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 3, Volos NFC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Volos NFC 0-3 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and Volos NFC?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 54%, Volos NFC 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Atromitos) and 64% (Volos NFC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atromitos have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play Volos NFC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Atromitos's games and 73% of Volos NFC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atromitos vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Atromitos's matches and 64% of Volos NFC's.
Do Atromitos and Volos NFC tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atromitos edge out Volos NFC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos beat Volos NFC 2-1 at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.53 xG and Volos NFC 1.45 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 1.17 / defence 1.37 against Volos NFC attack 1.00 / defence 1.29, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 40% | Draw 24% | Volos NFC 36%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 54%, Volos NFC 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Volos NFC's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atromitos 0.83 PPG, Volos NFC 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.