Atromitos 2-1 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atromitos at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atromitos vs PAS Giannina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atromitos and PAS Giannina meet at Stadio Peristeriou in Super League 1, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Monday 10 October 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Atromitos have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Atromitos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Atromitos's home record at Stadio Peristeriou: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Atromitos are significantly better at Stadio Peristeriou than their overall form suggests.
PAS Giannina's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. PAS Giannina have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAS Giannina's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Atromitos, 0.70 for PAS Giannina — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Atromitos 0W, PAS Giannina 0W, 2D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jan 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Atromitos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
PAS Giannina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 16% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 49% versus PAS Giannina 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 46% | PAS Giannina 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.54 xG and PAS Giannina 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 1.022 / defence 0.914 | PAS Giannina attack 0.736 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.045. PAS Giannina bring a strong defensive rating of 1.205 — this is suppressing Atromitos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Atromitos games / 32 PAS Giannina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 55% | Draw 31% | PAS Giannina 14%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 1.82 | Draw 3.23 | PAS Giannina 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Atromitos (55%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atromitos as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 31% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atromitos 50% | PAS Giannina 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs PAS Giannina | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Monday 10 Oct 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 55% | Draw 31% | PAS Giannina 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 42% | xG Atromitos 1.54 / PAS Giannina 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 1.022 / def 0.914 | PAS Giannina attack 0.736 / def 1.205 | league avg home 1.252 / away 1.045 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
0.70
PAS Giannina xG
42%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs PAS Giannina kick off?
Atromitos vs PAS Giannina kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 10 October 2022 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs PAS Giannina?
Atromitos 2 - 1 PAS Giannina.
Where is Atromitos vs PAS Giannina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs PAS Giannina part of?
Atromitos vs PAS Giannina is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs PAS Giannina?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 55% chance of winning, PAS Giannina a 14% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs PAS Giannina?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Atromitos and PAS Giannina will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs PAS Giannina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and PAS Giannina?
Record (2 meetings): Atromitos 0W | Draws 2 | PAS Giannina 0W.
What form are Atromitos and PAS Giannina in?
Atromitos (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. PAS Giannina (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Atromitos's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against PAS Giannina's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — PAS Giannina's attack (0.74x) against Atromitos's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 2-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
55%
1.82
31%
3.26
14%
6.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.24
0.70
PAS Giannina xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
6.93
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
27%
3.68
3%
32.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 7.5 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 11.5 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs PAS Giannina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Atromitos and PAS Giannina expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Atromitos and 0.70 for PAS Giannina, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs PAS Giannina?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Atromitos come into this having played 39 games, going 10W 11D 18L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Atromitos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, PAS Giannina sit at 1.10 PPG from 39 outings (11W 10D 18L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for PAS Giannina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Atromitos against 1.10 for PAS Giannina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Atromitos's home form reads 7W 5D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, PAS Giannina have taken 0.68 points per game from 19 outings (3W 4D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PAS Giannina's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atromitos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atromitos are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; PAS Giannina are on 0.92 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Early Season
PAS Giannina
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and PAS Giannina in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 10W 11D 18L in their last 39 games (1.05 PPG), while PAS Giannina have gone 11W 10D 18L in their last 39 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or PAS Giannina away?
Atromitos's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.37 PPG; PAS Giannina away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Atromitos or PAS Giannina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atromitos have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, PAS Giannina in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atromitos have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAS Giannina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Atromitos
6
Draws
0
PAS Giannina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and PAS Giannina?
From 8 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 2, PAS Giannina have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and PAS Giannina last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Atromitos 3-2 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and PAS Giannina?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
PAS Giannina see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 53% (Atromitos) and 16% (PAS Giannina) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 42% for Atromitos and 26% for PAS Giannina.
On the defensive side: Atromitos have failed to score in 32% of games; PAS Giannina in 68%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / PAS Giannina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play PAS Giannina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Atromitos's recent matches and 16% of PAS Giannina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atromitos vs PAS Giannina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Atromitos's recent games and 26% of PAS Giannina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and PAS Giannina tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, PAS Giannina in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atromitos edge out PAS Giannina 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos beat PAS Giannina 2-1 at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.54 xG and PAS Giannina 0.70 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 1.02 / defence 0.91 against PAS Giannina attack 0.74 / defence 1.21, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 55% | Draw 31% | PAS Giannina 14%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 46%, PAS Giannina 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
PAS Giannina's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.05 PPG, PAS Giannina 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.