Atromitos 1-1 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Atromitos take on PAOK.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees PAOK travel to Stadio Peristeriou to take on Atromitos. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 28 December 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Atromitos have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Peristeriou, Atromitos have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Atromitos are significantly better at Stadio Peristeriou than their overall form suggests.
PAOK — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAOK away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. PAOK's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Atromitos's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Atromitos, 2 for PAOK and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2022, ended 1–2 with PAOK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Atromitos trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
PAOK trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 45% versus PAOK 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 43% | PAOK 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 0.85 xG and PAOK 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.894 / defence 0.885 | PAOK attack 1.186 / defence 0.762. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 1.065. PAOK's defence strength of 0.762 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 40 Atromitos games / 40 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 24% | Draw 39% | PAOK 38%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 4.17 | Draw 2.56 | PAOK 2.63. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 24% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atromitos 40% | PAOK 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Dec 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 24% | Draw 39% | PAOK 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 42% | xG Atromitos 0.85 / PAOK 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.894 / def 0.885 | PAOK attack 1.186 / def 0.762 | league avg home 1.246 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
1.12
PAOK xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs PAOK kick off?
Atromitos vs PAOK kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 28 December 2022 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs PAOK?
Atromitos 1 - 1 PAOK.
Where is Atromitos vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs PAOK part of?
Atromitos vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 24% chance of winning, PAOK a 38% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Atromitos and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and PAOK?
Record (3 meetings): Atromitos 1W | Draws 0 | PAOK 2W.
What form are Atromitos and PAOK in?
Atromitos (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. PAOK (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Atromitos's attack at 0.89x the league average against PAOK's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PAOK's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
24%
4.23
39%
2.59
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Atromitos xG
Total xG
1.97
1.12
PAOK xG
4.23
24%
Home win
2.59
39%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
8%
12.91
16%
6.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 15.6 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Atromitos and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Atromitos and 1.12 for PAOK, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atromitos's recent record stands at 13W 12D 22L from 47 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAOK, meanwhile, have gone 25W 11D 11L across 47 games — 1.83 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours PAOK by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Atromitos heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Atromitos have managed 9W 6D 8L from 23 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAOK's away record stands at 10W 6D 7L across 23 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Atromitos are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.62 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and PAOK in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 13W 12D 22L in their last 47 games (1.09 PPG), while PAOK have gone 25W 11D 11L in their last 47 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.43 PPG; PAOK away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Atromitos or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atromitos have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, PAOK in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Dec 2024, when PAOK won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atromitos's record when hosting PAOK specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Atromitos
1
Draws
7
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 2, PAOK have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Atromitos 2-0 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 48%, PAOK 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Atromitos) and 39% (PAOK).
On the defensive side: PAOK in 39%; Atromitos have failed to score in 35% of games; PAOK in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Atromitos's recent matches and 44% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atromitos vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Atromitos's recent games and 39% of PAOK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and PAOK tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, PAOK in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atromitos and PAOK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 15, as Atromitos and PAOK drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 0.85 xG and PAOK 1.12 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.89 / defence 0.89 against PAOK attack 1.19 / defence 0.76, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 24% | Draw 39% | PAOK 38%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 43%, PAOK 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
PAOK's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.