Atromitos 0-3 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Olympiakos Piraeus travel to Stadio Peristeriou to take on Atromitos. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 15 December 2021, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Atromitos have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atromitos's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 3L across 6 games at Stadio Peristeriou this term (1.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Olympiakos Piraeus stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form when playing away from home: 6W 0D 0L across 6 road games this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Olympiakos Piraeus's 2.80 PPG return is 2.00 points per game ahead of Atromitos's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Atromitos register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 83% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Atromitos, 0 for Olympiakos Piraeus and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Atromitos in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 46% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 54% | Olympiakos Piraeus 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.29 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 1.099 / defence 1.186 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.273 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.077 / away 1.245. Olympiakos Piraeus have an above-average attack strength of 1.273 — the away xG of 1.88 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 13 Atromitos games / 13 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 26% | Draw 22% | Olympiakos Piraeus 51%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 3.85 | Draw 4.55 | Olympiakos Piraeus 1.96. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.29 / 1.88) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atromitos 67% | Olympiakos Piraeus 83% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 Dec 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 26% | Draw 22% | Olympiakos Piraeus 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Atromitos 1.29 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 1.099 / def 1.186 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.273 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.077 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 15 December 2021 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Atromitos 0 - 3 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 26% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 51% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (1 meetings): Atromitos 0W | Draws 1 | Olympiakos Piraeus 0W.
What form are Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Atromitos (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Atromitos's attack at 1.10x the league average against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Olympiakos Piraeus's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 1.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
26%
3.79
22%
4.44
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Atromitos xG
Total xG
3.18
1.88
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
3.79
26%
Home win
4.44
22%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
15%
6.56
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
4%
24.88
14%
7.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.9 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Atromitos and 1.88 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atromitos come into this having played 13 games, going 2W 3D 8L for 0.69 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Olympiakos Piraeus sit at 2.69 PPG from 13 outings (11W 2D 0L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Atromitos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Atromitos's home form reads 2W 1D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.69 PPG overall — Atromitos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Olympiakos Piraeus have taken 3.00 points per game from 6 outings (6W 0D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Atromitos are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.85 scored and 0.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Olympiakos Piraeus in 62%.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 2W 3D 8L in their last 13 games (0.69 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 11W 2D 0L in their last 13 (2.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.17 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 3.00 PPG.
Have Atromitos or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atromitos have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atromitos's record when hosting Olympiakos Piraeus specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Atromitos
3
Draws
7
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 0, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Atromitos 0-2 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Atromitos at 67%, Olympiakos Piraeus at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Atromitos and 83% for Olympiakos Piraeus. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Atromitos's games and 83% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Atromitos's matches and 83% of Olympiakos Piraeus's.
Do Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Olympiakos Piraeus run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Atromitos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Atromitos 0-3 at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.29 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.88 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Atromitos fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Olympiakos Piraeus outscored their 1.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 1.10 / defence 1.19 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.27 / defence 1.09, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 26% | Draw 22% | Olympiakos Piraeus 51%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 54%, Olympiakos Piraeus 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.69 PPG against 0.69. Form held, and they took the win. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.