Atromitos 0-2 Ionikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atromitos at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atromitos vs Ionikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 7 as Atromitos welcome Ionikos to Stadio Peristeriou. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 October 2021 at 16:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Atromitos have gone 0W 2D 4L from 6 outings — a 0.33 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Atromitos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Atromitos at Stadio Peristeriou this season: 0W 1D 2L from 3 home games — 0.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ionikos stand at 1W 2D 3L from 6 Super League 1 matches — 0.83 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Ionikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ionikos away from home this season: 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.33 PPG (Atromitos) versus 0.83 (Ionikos). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Atromitos in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Ionikos in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 50% versus Ionikos 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 67% | Ionikos 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.36 xG and Ionikos 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.938 / defence 1.422 | Ionikos attack 0.666 / defence 1.434. League average goals — home 1.011 / away 1.143. Ionikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.434 — this is suppressing Atromitos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Atromitos games / 6 Ionikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 42% | Draw 30% | Ionikos 28%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Ionikos 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atromitos are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atromitos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Atromitos 100% | Ionikos 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Ionikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 42% | Draw 30% | Ionikos 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Atromitos 1.36 / Ionikos 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.938 / def 1.422 | Ionikos attack 0.666 / def 1.434 | league avg home 1.011 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Ionikos xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs Ionikos kick off?
Atromitos vs Ionikos kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs Ionikos?
Atromitos 0 - 2 Ionikos.
Where is Atromitos vs Ionikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs Ionikos part of?
Atromitos vs Ionikos is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Ionikos?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 42% chance of winning, Ionikos a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Ionikos?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Atromitos and Ionikos will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs Ionikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Ionikos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atromitos and Ionikos in?
Atromitos (all comps): 0W-2D-4L in 6 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Ionikos (all comps): 1W-2D-3L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Atromitos's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Ionikos's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Ionikos's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
42%
2.40
30%
3.34
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.44
1.08
Ionikos xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
14%
7.09
7%
13.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.8 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Ionikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Ionikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Atromitos and 1.08 for Ionikos, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Ionikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atromitos's recent record stands at 0W 2D 4L from 6 games, a 0.33 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Atromitos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ionikos, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 3L across 6 games — 0.83 PPG, with W-D-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ionikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ionikos by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Atromitos heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Atromitos have managed 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — 0.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ionikos's away record stands at 0W 1D 2L across 3 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ionikos's season.
The Goals Picture
Atromitos are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Ionikos are on 0.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Ionikos in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Early Season
Ionikos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and Ionikos in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 0W 2D 4L in their last 6 games (0.33 PPG), while Ionikos have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Ionikos away?
Atromitos's home record (0.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 0.33 PPG; Ionikos away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Atromitos or Ionikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atromitos have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Ionikos in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atromitos and Ionikos runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Atromitos have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Sep 2022, when Atromitos won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atromitos's record when hosting Ionikos specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Atromitos
0
Draws
3
Ionikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Ionikos?
From 6 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 3, Ionikos have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Ionikos last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Atromitos 2-0 Ionikos.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ionikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Atromitos at 100%, Ionikos at 33%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Atromitos and 67% for Ionikos. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ionikos in 33%; Ionikos in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Ionikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play Ionikos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Atromitos's games and 33% of Ionikos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atromitos vs Ionikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Atromitos's matches and 67% of Ionikos's.
Do Atromitos and Ionikos tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Ionikos in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ionikos cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Atromitos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ionikos beat Atromitos 0-2 at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.36 xG and Ionikos 1.08 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Atromitos fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Ionikos outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.94 / defence 1.42 against Ionikos attack 0.67 / defence 1.43, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 42% | Draw 30% | Ionikos 28%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Ionikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 67%, Ionikos 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ionikos's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ionikos arrived the stronger side — 0.83 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Ionikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.