Asteras Tripolis 2-2 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 43% as Asteras Tripolis take on PAOK.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis plays host to Asteras Tripolis versus PAOK in Super League 1, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Monday 13 February 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Asteras Tripolis have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Asteras Tripolis's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Asteras Tripolis are significantly better at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis than their overall form suggests.
PAOK's overall Super League 1 record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.30. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAOK's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. PAOK are 1.20 PPG clear of Asteras Tripolis in recent Super League 1 fixtures (2.40 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Asteras Tripolis lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Asteras Tripolis — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 46% of games.
PAOK — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 30% versus PAOK 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Asteras Tripolis 28% | PAOK 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 0.73 xG and PAOK 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.893 / defence 0.606 | PAOK attack 1.391 / defence 0.710. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.038. PAOK's defence strength of 0.710 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. PAOK have an above-average attack strength of 1.391 — the away xG of 0.88 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Asteras Tripolis's defence rating of 0.606 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Asteras Tripolis games / 47 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 24% | Draw 43% | PAOK 33%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 4.17 | Draw 2.33 | PAOK 3.03. The draw (43%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.61. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.61 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Asteras Tripolis's lower xG of 0.73 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 43% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 24% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 22% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Asteras Tripolis 10% | PAOK 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis • Kick-off: Monday 13 Feb 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 24% | Draw 43% | PAOK 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 34% | xG Asteras Tripolis 0.73 / PAOK 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.893 / def 0.606 | PAOK attack 1.391 / def 0.710 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Draw (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
0.88
PAOK xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 13 February 2023 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK?
Asteras Tripolis 2 - 2 PAOK.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 24% chance of winning, PAOK a 33% chance, and a 43% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and PAOK?
Record (3 meetings): Asteras Tripolis 0W | Draws 1 | PAOK 2W.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and PAOK in?
Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. PAOK (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Asteras Tripolis's attack at 0.89x the league average against PAOK's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 0.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.39x) against Asteras Tripolis's defence (0.61x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 21.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.9%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
24%
4.08
43%
2.34
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.5%
Away win
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
1.61
0.88
PAOK xG
4.08
24%
Home win
2.34
43%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.93
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
48%
2.08
Win to Nil
10%
9.79
16%
6.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.0 | 17.5 | 7.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.8 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.7%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 0.88 for PAOK, a combined total of 1.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Asteras Tripolis come into this having played 54 games, going 15W 18D 21L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-D. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PAOK sit at 1.87 PPG from 54 outings (29W 14D 11L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAOK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Asteras Tripolis — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Asteras Tripolis's home form reads 11W 8D 7L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Asteras Tripolis are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, PAOK have taken 1.65 points per game from 26 outings (12W 7D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.61 scored and 0.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Asteras Tripolis have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Defensively: Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; PAOK in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and PAOK in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 15W 18D 21L in their last 54 games (1.17 PPG), while PAOK have gone 29W 14D 11L in their last 54 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.58 PPG; PAOK away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Asteras Tripolis or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, PAOK in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won 3-0 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Asteras Tripolis have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Asteras Tripolis
3
Draws
7
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, Asteras Tripolis have won 0, PAOK have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when PAOK 2-0 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Asteras Tripolis see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 23% (Asteras Tripolis) and 42% (PAOK) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 23% for Asteras Tripolis and 42% for PAOK.
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; PAOK in 42%; Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 42% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 42% of PAOK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and PAOK tend to score early?
Asteras Tripolis have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, PAOK in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Asteras Tripolis and PAOK share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Asteras Tripolis and PAOK finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 0.73 xG and PAOK 0.88 xG, a combined 1.61. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PAOK outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.89 / defence 0.61 against PAOK attack 1.39 / defence 0.71, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 24% | Draw 43% | PAOK 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. Over 3.5 was 8% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 28%, PAOK 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
PAOK's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAOK (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.