Asteras Tripolis 0-2 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis plays host to Asteras Tripolis versus Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Sunday 26 September 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Asteras Tripolis have collected 0.67 PPG across 3 Super League 1 outings this season: 0W 2D 1L. Last five: D L D. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 0.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Asteras Tripolis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 2W 1D 0L across 3 Super League 1 outings this term — 2.33 points per game. Last five: D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Olympiakos Piraeus are 1.66 PPG clear of Asteras Tripolis in recent Super League 1 fixtures (2.33 vs 0.67). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Asteras Tripolis half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 100% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Asteras Tripolis 0% | Olympiakos Piraeus 67%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Asteras Tripolis 0% | Olympiakos Piraeus 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 0.85 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.794 / defence 1.154 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.019 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 0.935 / away 0.817. Asteras Tripolis's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Asteras Tripolis games / 3 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 31% | Draw 33% | Olympiakos Piraeus 37%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 3.23 | Draw 3.03 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Asteras Tripolis's lower xG of 0.85 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.81 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Asteras Tripolis 0% | Olympiakos Piraeus 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 31% | Draw 33% | Olympiakos Piraeus 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Asteras Tripolis 0.85 / Olympiakos Piraeus 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.794 / def 1.154 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.019 / def 1.146 | league avg home 0.935 / away 0.817 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Asteras Tripolis 0 - 2 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 31% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 0W-2D-1L in 3 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.33 | L5 D-L-D. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.67 | L5 D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Asteras Tripolis's attack at 0.79x the league average against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.02x) against Asteras Tripolis's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
31%
3.26
33%
3.06
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
1.81
0.96
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.83
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
12%
8.53
16%
6.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.3 | 15.7 | 7.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 0.96 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 3 outings, Asteras Tripolis have picked up 0.67 PPG on a 0W 2D 1L record — D-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games, 2.33 PPG, last five D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 1.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Asteras Tripolis.
Attack vs Defence
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 2.00 scored and 0.67 conceded. Olympiakos Piraeus's attacking output running into Asteras Tripolis's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Asteras Tripolis have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 67%.
Defensively: Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Early Season
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 games (0.67 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 (2.33 PPG).
Have Asteras Tripolis or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 4 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 5-0 on 28 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Asteras Tripolis have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Asteras Tripolis
2
Draws
7
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, Asteras Tripolis have won 1, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2026, when Asteras Tripolis 0-3 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Asteras Tripolis see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Asteras Tripolis) and 67% (Olympiakos Piraeus) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Asteras Tripolis and 67% for Olympiakos Piraeus.
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 33%; Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 100% of games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 67% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 67% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Asteras Tripolis have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Olympiakos Piraeus cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Asteras Tripolis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Asteras Tripolis 0-2 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 0.85 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 0.96 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Olympiakos Piraeus outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.79 / defence 1.15 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.02 / defence 1.15, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 31% | Draw 33% | Olympiakos Piraeus 37%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 0%, Olympiakos Piraeus 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 100% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.67. That form edge translated into the three points. Asteras Tripolis shipped 2 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.