Asteras Tripolis 3-0 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Asteras Tripolis at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Lamia travel to Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis to take on Asteras Tripolis. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 4 January 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Asteras Tripolis stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Asteras Tripolis's home record at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Lamia — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Lamia have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Asteras Tripolis 1.00 PPG, Lamia 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Asteras Tripolis's 30% rate and Lamia's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Asteras Tripolis, 2 for Lamia and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.2 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Asteras Tripolis in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Lamia in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 33% versus Lamia 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Asteras Tripolis 27% | Lamia 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 1.15 xG and Lamia 0.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.787 / defence 0.717 | Lamia attack 0.659 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.016. Asteras Tripolis's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Lamia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing Asteras Tripolis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Asteras Tripolis's defence rating of 0.717 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Asteras Tripolis games / 41 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 49% | Draw 38% | Lamia 12%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 2.04 | Draw 2.63 | Lamia 8.33. Asteras Tripolis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (38%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.63. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.63 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Lamia's lower xG of 0.48 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Asteras Tripolis are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 38% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Asteras Tripolis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 23% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 29%. Form rates corroborate: Asteras Tripolis 30% | Lamia 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 Jan 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 49% | Draw 38% | Lamia 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 29% | xG Asteras Tripolis 1.15 / Lamia 0.48 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.787 / def 0.717 | Lamia attack 0.659 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
0.48
Lamia xG
29%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia kicked off at 15:00 on Wednesday 4 January 2023 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia?
Asteras Tripolis 3 - 0 Lamia.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 49% chance of winning, Lamia a 12% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Lamia?
Record (4 meetings): Asteras Tripolis 1W | Draws 1 | Lamia 2W.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Lamia in?
Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Lamia (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Asteras Tripolis's attack at 0.79x the league average against Lamia's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Asteras Tripolis's defence, projects 0.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 21.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (20.9%), 2-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 55% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
49%
2.02
38%
2.60
12%
8.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
22.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
19.5%
Draw
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
1.63
0.48
Lamia xG
2.02
49%
Home win
2.60
38%
Draw
8.25
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.41
71%
BTTS No
1.42
Clean Sheet
62%
1.62
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
31%
3.27
4%
26.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.5 | 9.4 | 2.2 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 1 | 22.5 | 10.8 | 2.6 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 6.2 | 1.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.1%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 0.48 for Lamia, a combined total of 1.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Asteras Tripolis come into this having played 48 games, going 13W 16D 19L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-L. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lamia sit at 0.83 PPG from 48 outings (8W 16D 24L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Asteras Tripolis on 1.15 PPG, Lamia on 0.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Asteras Tripolis's home form reads 9W 7D 8L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Lamia have taken 0.96 points per game from 24 outings (5W 8D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Asteras Tripolis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.67 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
Lamia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Lamia in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 13W 16D 19L in their last 48 games (1.15 PPG), while Lamia have gone 8W 16D 24L in their last 48 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or Lamia away?
Asteras Tripolis's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.42 PPG; Lamia away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Asteras Tripolis or Lamia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Lamia in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Asteras Tripolis and Lamia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jan 2023, when Asteras Tripolis won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Asteras Tripolis's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Asteras Tripolis
3
Draws
4
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, Asteras Tripolis have won 3, Lamia have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2025, when Asteras Tripolis 1-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and Lamia?
Lamia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Asteras Tripolis 25% BTTS, Lamia 29%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 21% for Asteras Tripolis and 33% for Lamia.
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Lamia in 33%; Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 46% of games; Lamia in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 29% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 33% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and Lamia tend to score early?
Asteras Tripolis have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Lamia in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Asteras Tripolis run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Asteras Tripolis beat Lamia 3-0 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.15 xG and Lamia 0.48 xG, a combined 1.63. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.79 / defence 0.72 against Lamia attack 0.66 / defence 1.22, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 49% | Draw 38% | Lamia 12%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 27%, Lamia 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lamia's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Asteras Tripolis 1.15 PPG, Lamia 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Asteras Tripolis win broke the near-deadlock. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Lamia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.