Asteras Tripolis 0-0 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Asteras Tripolis at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Asteras Tripolis host Atromitos at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis in Super League 1, Relegation Round - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 April 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Asteras Tripolis have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Asteras Tripolis's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atromitos stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Atromitos have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Asteras Tripolis at 1.50 PPG versus Atromitos's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Asteras Tripolis in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Atromitos in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 33% versus Atromitos 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Asteras Tripolis 26% | Atromitos 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 1.49 xG and Atromitos 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.968 / defence 1.132 | Atromitos attack 0.745 / defence 1.559. League average goals — home 0.989 / away 1.050. Atromitos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.559 — this is suppressing Asteras Tripolis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Asteras Tripolis games / 26 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 51% | Draw 26% | Atromitos 22%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Atromitos 4.55. Asteras Tripolis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Asteras Tripolis are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Asteras Tripolis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Asteras Tripolis 20% | Atromitos 50% BTTS from recent games.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 51% | Draw 26% | Atromitos 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Asteras Tripolis 1.49 / Atromitos 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.968 / def 1.132 | Atromitos attack 0.745 / def 1.559 | league avg home 0.989 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Atromitos xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos?
Asteras Tripolis 0 - 0 Atromitos.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 51% chance of winning, Atromitos a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos in?
Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Atromitos (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Asteras Tripolis's attack rating (0.97) and Atromitos's defence rating (1.56), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus Asteras Tripolis's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
51%
1.95
26%
3.78
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
2.38
0.89
Atromitos xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
5%
20.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.3 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 0.89 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Asteras Tripolis come into this having played 27 games, going 11W 5D 11L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atromitos sit at 0.96 PPG from 27 outings (7W 5D 15L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Asteras Tripolis carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Atromitos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Asteras Tripolis's home form reads 7W 1D 5L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Atromitos have taken 0.46 points per game from 13 outings (1W 3D 9L). That's a step down from their 0.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atromitos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Asteras Tripolis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.04 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Defensively: Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 11W 5D 11L in their last 27 games (1.41 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 7W 5D 15L in their last 27 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or Atromitos away?
Asteras Tripolis's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.69 PPG; Atromitos away: 0.46 PPG.
Have Asteras Tripolis or Atromitos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Atromitos in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2025, when Atromitos won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Asteras Tripolis's record when hosting Atromitos specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Asteras Tripolis
0
Draws
4
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos?
From 10 meetings on record, Asteras Tripolis have won 6, Atromitos have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Asteras Tripolis 4-2 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos?
Asteras Tripolis have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Asteras Tripolis 23% BTTS, Atromitos 38%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 23% (Asteras Tripolis) and 54% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 38% of games; Atromitos in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play Atromitos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 38% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 54% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos tend to score early?
Asteras Tripolis have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Asteras Tripolis's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Relegation Round - 2, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.49 xG and Atromitos 0.89 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Atromitos landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.97 / defence 1.13 against Atromitos attack 0.74 / defence 1.56, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 51% | Draw 26% | Atromitos 22%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 26%, Atromitos 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atromitos's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Asteras Tripolis arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Atromitos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.