Aris Thessalonikis 0-2 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Volos NFC travel to Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis to take on Aris Thessalonikis. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 February 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Aris Thessalonikis — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 5W 3D 1L this season (9 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 9 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis. At home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Volos NFC's away record: 2W 3D 4L from 9 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.78 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 89% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Aris Thessalonikis are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Aris Thessalonikis trading profile (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Volos NFC trading profile (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 89% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 30% versus Volos NFC 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 30% | Volos NFC 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.40 xG and Volos NFC 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.938 / defence 1.024 | Volos NFC attack 1.092 / defence 1.521. League average goals — home 0.983 / away 1.160. Volos NFC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.521 — this is suppressing Aris Thessalonikis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Aris Thessalonikis games / 20 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 40% | Draw 26% | Volos NFC 35%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Volos NFC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aris Thessalonikis are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 22% | Volos NFC 89% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 40% | Draw 26% | Volos NFC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.40 / Volos NFC 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.938 / def 1.024 | Volos NFC attack 1.092 / def 1.521 | league avg home 0.983 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Volos NFC xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC?
Aris Thessalonikis 0 - 2 Volos NFC.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 40% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Volos NFC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Aris Thessalonikis's attack rating (0.94) and Volos NFC's defence rating (1.52), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Aris Thessalonikis's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
40%
2.53
26%
3.88
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.70
1.30
Volos NFC xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
11%
9.27
9%
11.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.2 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 1.30 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 20 outings, Aris Thessalonikis have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 10W 5D 5L record — L-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Volos NFC's form line: 7W 4D 9L from 20 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Aris Thessalonikis are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Volos NFC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 2.00 PPG from 9 outings (5W 3D 1L).
On the road, Volos NFC have gone 2W 3D 4L from 9 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.55 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aris Thessalonikis have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games; Volos NFC in 75%.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Volos NFC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 10W 5D 5L in their last 20 games (1.75 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 7W 4D 9L in their last 20 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Volos NFC away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 2.00 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Volos NFC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Volos NFC in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Aris Thessalonikis have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when Aris Thessalonikis won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Aris Thessalonikis's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Aris Thessalonikis
2
Draws
1
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 7, Volos NFC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Volos NFC 1-2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 22%, Volos NFC 89% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 78% (Volos NFC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Volos NFC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 22% of Aris Thessalonikis's games and 89% of Volos NFC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Aris Thessalonikis's matches and 78% of Volos NFC's.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Volos NFC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Aris Thessalonikis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC beat Aris Thessalonikis 0-2 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.40 xG and Volos NFC 1.30 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.94 / defence 1.02 against Volos NFC attack 1.09 / defence 1.52, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 40% | Draw 26% | Volos NFC 35%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Volos NFC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 30%, Volos NFC 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Volos NFC's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Volos NFC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Volos NFC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.