Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Championship Round - 3 as Aris Thessalonikis welcome PAS Giannina to Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Aris Thessalonikis stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Aris Thessalonikis at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, PAS Giannina have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
PAS Giannina away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Aris Thessalonikis 1.70 PPG, PAS Giannina 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Aris Thessalonikis's 20% and PAS Giannina's 10% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Aris Thessalonikis, 2 for PAS Giannina and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2022, ended 0–2 with PAS Giannina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Aris Thessalonikis in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
PAS Giannina in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 7% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Aris Thessalonikis 29% | PAS Giannina 32%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Aris Thessalonikis 32% | PAS Giannina 21%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.03 xG and PAS Giannina 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.973 / defence 0.977 | PAS Giannina attack 0.650 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 0.989 / away 1.050. Data: 26 Aris Thessalonikis games / 26 PAS Giannina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 43% | Draw 34% | PAS Giannina 23%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.33 | Draw 2.94 | PAS Giannina 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.69. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.69 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — PAS Giannina's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.69 combined xG gives a 24% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 31% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 20% | PAS Giannina 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 43% | Draw 34% | PAS Giannina 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 31% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.03 / PAS Giannina 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.973 / def 0.977 | PAS Giannina attack 0.650 / def 1.066 | league avg home 0.989 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.67
PAS Giannina xG
31%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina?
Aris Thessalonikis 0 - 0 PAS Giannina.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina is a Championship Round - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 43% chance of winning, PAS Giannina a 23% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina?
Record (2 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 0W | Draws 0 | PAS Giannina 2W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. PAS Giannina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Aris Thessalonikis's attack rating (0.97) and PAS Giannina's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAS Giannina's attack versus Aris Thessalonikis's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.3%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
43%
2.31
34%
2.98
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
1.69
0.67
PAS Giannina xG
2.31
43%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.19
69%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
22%
4.50
8%
12.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.4 | 12.3 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.9 | 12.6 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.1%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.67 for PAS Giannina, a combined total of 1.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Aris Thessalonikis's recent record stands at 13W 7D 8L from 28 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five.
PAS Giannina, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 9L across 28 games — 1.46 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Aris Thessalonikis on 1.64 PPG, PAS Giannina on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Aris Thessalonikis have managed 7W 5D 2L from 14 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAS Giannina's away record stands at 4W 4D 6L across 14 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; PAS Giannina are on 1.04 scored and 0.93 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Aris Thessalonikis have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; PAS Giannina in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Current Season
PAS Giannina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 13W 7D 8L in their last 28 games (1.64 PPG), while PAS Giannina have gone 11W 8D 9L in their last 28 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or PAS Giannina away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.86 PPG; PAS Giannina away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or PAS Giannina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, PAS Giannina in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Nov 2021, when PAS Giannina won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Aris Thessalonikis's record when hosting PAS Giannina specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Aris Thessalonikis
2
Draws
2
PAS Giannina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina?
From 8 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 4, PAS Giannina have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2024, when PAS Giannina 0-0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
PAS Giannina tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Aris Thessalonikis 21% BTTS, PAS Giannina 14%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Aris Thessalonikis and 7% for PAS Giannina.
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 64% of their matches; PAS Giannina in 43%; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 50% of games; PAS Giannina in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / PAS Giannina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play PAS Giannina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 21% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 14% of PAS Giannina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 7% of PAS Giannina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, PAS Giannina in 29% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Aris Thessalonikis's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Championship Round - 3, as Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.03 xG and PAS Giannina 0.67 xG, a combined 1.69. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.97 / defence 0.98 against PAS Giannina attack 0.65 / defence 1.07, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 43% | Draw 34% | PAS Giannina 23%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 51% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 27% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 32%, PAS Giannina 21%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PAS Giannina's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aris Thessalonikis 1.64 PPG, PAS Giannina 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.