Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 Apollon Smirnis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs Apollon Smirnis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Aris Thessalonikis and Apollon Smirnis meet at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 October 2021 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Aris Thessalonikis have collected 1.75 PPG across 4 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 1D 1L. Last five: D L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Apollon Smirnis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games (0.25 PPG). Last five: L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.75 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Apollon Smirnis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Aris Thessalonikis's favour (1.75 vs 0.25) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Aris Thessalonikis — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Apollon Smirnis — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 25% versus Apollon Smirnis 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 25% | Apollon Smirnis 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.39 xG and Apollon Smirnis 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.804 / defence 0.938 | Apollon Smirnis attack 0.773 / defence 1.710. League average goals — home 1.014 / away 0.922. Apollon Smirnis bring a strong defensive rating of 1.710 — this is suppressing Aris Thessalonikis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Aris Thessalonikis games / 4 Apollon Smirnis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 53% | Draw 30% | Apollon Smirnis 16%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 1.89 | Draw 3.33 | Apollon Smirnis 6.25. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 25% | Apollon Smirnis 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Apollon Smirnis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 53% | Draw 30% | Apollon Smirnis 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 38% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.39 / Apollon Smirnis 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.804 / def 0.938 | Apollon Smirnis attack 0.773 / def 1.710 | league avg home 1.014 / away 0.922 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Apollon Smirnis xG
38%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Apollon Smirnis kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Apollon Smirnis kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Apollon Smirnis?
Aris Thessalonikis 0 - 0 Apollon Smirnis.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Apollon Smirnis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Apollon Smirnis part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Apollon Smirnis is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 53% chance of winning, Apollon Smirnis a 16% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Apollon Smirnis will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Apollon Smirnis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Apollon Smirnis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Apollon Smirnis in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-L-W-W. Apollon Smirnis (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.75 | L5 L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Aris Thessalonikis's attack at 0.80x the league average against Apollon Smirnis's defence at 1.71x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Apollon Smirnis's attack (0.77x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
53%
1.89
30%
3.28
16%
6.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.06
0.67
Apollon Smirnis xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
6.07
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
27%
3.68
4%
24.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 11.8 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 8.3 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Apollon Smirnis expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.67 for Apollon Smirnis, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Apollon Smirnis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 4 outings, Aris Thessalonikis have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 2W 1D 1L record — D-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Apollon Smirnis's form line: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games, 0.25 PPG, last five L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Apollon Smirnis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Aris Thessalonikis are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Apollon Smirnis.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Apollon Smirnis are on 0.50 scored and 2.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aris Thessalonikis have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Early Season
Apollon Smirnis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Apollon Smirnis in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while Apollon Smirnis have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 (0.25 PPG).
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Apollon Smirnis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Apollon Smirnis in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Aris Thessalonikis
2
Draws
0
Apollon Smirnis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Apollon Smirnis?
From 2 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 0, Apollon Smirnis have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Apollon Smirnis last play each other?
They last met on 15 January 2022, when Apollon Smirnis 0-0 Aris Thessalonikis.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Apollon Smirnis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 25%, Apollon Smirnis 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 75% (Apollon Smirnis).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 50% of games; Apollon Smirnis in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Apollon Smirnis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Apollon Smirnis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 50% of Apollon Smirnis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Apollon Smirnis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 75% of Apollon Smirnis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Apollon Smirnis tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Apollon Smirnis in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Aris Thessalonikis's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 5, as Aris Thessalonikis and Apollon Smirnis drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.39 xG and Apollon Smirnis 0.67 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.80 / defence 0.94 against Apollon Smirnis attack 0.77 / defence 1.71, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 53% | Draw 30% | Apollon Smirnis 16%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 25%, Apollon Smirnis 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Apollon Smirnis's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Aris Thessalonikis managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Apollon Smirnis conceded 0 against a 2.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.