Apollon Smirnis 0-3 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Panathinaikos at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Apollon Smirnis vs Panathinaikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Panathinaikos make the trip to Stadio Georgios Kamaras to face Apollon Smirnis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Wednesday 16 February 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Apollon Smirnis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Apollon Smirnis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Apollon Smirnis's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Georgios Kamaras this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Georgios Kamaras. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Apollon Smirnis are significantly better at Stadio Georgios Kamaras than their overall form suggests.
Panathinaikos have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Panathinaikos have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Panathinaikos are 1.30 PPG clear of Apollon Smirnis in recent Super League 1 fixtures (1.60 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Apollon Smirnis 0W, Panathinaikos 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 0–4 with Panathinaikos winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Apollon Smirnis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 30% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 10% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 71% of games.
Panathinaikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Apollon Smirnis 24% | Panathinaikos 38%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Apollon Smirnis 38% | Panathinaikos 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Apollon Smirnis 0.66 xG and Panathinaikos 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Apollon Smirnis attack 0.485 / defence 1.007 | Panathinaikos attack 0.820 / defence 1.361. League average goals — home 0.993 / away 1.136. Apollon Smirnis's attack strength of 0.485 is below the league average — the 0.66 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Panathinaikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.361 — this is suppressing Apollon Smirnis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Apollon Smirnis games / 22 Panathinaikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Apollon Smirnis 25% | Draw 35% | Panathinaikos 41%. Fair-value odds: Apollon Smirnis 4.00 | Draw 2.86 | Panathinaikos 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.59. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.59 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Apollon Smirnis's lower xG of 0.66 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Panathinaikos as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panathinaikos if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 21% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 29% on No. Form rates corroborate: Apollon Smirnis 10% | Panathinaikos 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Apollon Smirnis vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Kamaras • Kick-off: Wednesday 16 Feb 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Apollon Smirnis 25% | Draw 35% | Panathinaikos 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 29% | xG Apollon Smirnis 0.66 / Panathinaikos 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Apollon Smirnis attack 0.485 / def 1.007 | Panathinaikos attack 0.820 / def 1.361 | league avg home 0.993 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.66
Apollon Smirnis xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Panathinaikos xG
29%
BTTS
47%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Apollon Smirnis vs Panathinaikos kick off?
Apollon Smirnis vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 16:30 on Wednesday 16 February 2022 at Stadio Georgios Kamaras.
What was the final score in Apollon Smirnis vs Panathinaikos?
Apollon Smirnis 0 - 3 Panathinaikos.
Where is Apollon Smirnis vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Kamaras.
What competition is Apollon Smirnis vs Panathinaikos part of?
Apollon Smirnis vs Panathinaikos is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Apollon Smirnis vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives Apollon Smirnis a 25% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 41% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Apollon Smirnis vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Apollon Smirnis and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will Apollon Smirnis vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Apollon Smirnis and Panathinaikos?
Record (1 meetings): Apollon Smirnis 0W | Draws 0 | Panathinaikos 1W.
What form are Apollon Smirnis and Panathinaikos in?
Apollon Smirnis (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Panathinaikos (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Apollon Smirnis's attack rating (0.48) and Panathinaikos's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 0.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Panathinaikos's attack (0.82x) against Apollon Smirnis's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 21/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 21.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (17.4%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
25%
4.08
35%
2.87
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
19.1%
Away win
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.66
Apollon Smirnis xG
Total xG
1.59
0.94
Panathinaikos xG
4.08
25%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.42
71%
BTTS No
1.41
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
52%
1.93
Win to Nil
10%
10.42
21%
4.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.3 | 19.1 | 8.9 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.5 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Apollon Smirnis vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.9%.
How many goals are Apollon Smirnis and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 0.66 expected goals for Apollon Smirnis and 0.94 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 1.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Apollon Smirnis vs Panathinaikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 21 outings, Apollon Smirnis have picked up 0.48 PPG on a 1W 7D 13L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Apollon Smirnis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panathinaikos's form line: 9W 3D 9L from 21 games, 1.43 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Panathinaikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Panathinaikos are the form team by 0.95 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Apollon Smirnis.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Apollon Smirnis have posted 0.90 PPG from 10 outings (1W 6D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 0.48 PPG overall — Apollon Smirnis are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Panathinaikos have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Panathinaikos's season.
Attack vs Defence
Apollon Smirnis are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 1.38 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Apollon Smirnis have seen both teams score in 24% of their recent games.
Defensively: Panathinaikos in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Apollon Smirnis
Blended
Panathinaikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Apollon Smirnis and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
Apollon Smirnis have gone 1W 7D 13L in their last 21 games (0.48 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 9W 3D 9L in their last 21 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Apollon Smirnis at home or Panathinaikos away?
Apollon Smirnis's home record (0.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Apollon Smirnis at home: 0.90 PPG; Panathinaikos away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Apollon Smirnis or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Apollon Smirnis have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Apollon Smirnis
0
Draws
2
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Apollon Smirnis and Panathinaikos?
From 2 meetings on record, Apollon Smirnis have won 0, Panathinaikos have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Apollon Smirnis and Panathinaikos last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2022, when Apollon Smirnis 0-3 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between Apollon Smirnis and Panathinaikos?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Apollon Smirnis tend to start slowly — only 30% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 10% (Apollon Smirnis) and 50% (Panathinaikos) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Apollon Smirnis and 50% for Panathinaikos.
On the defensive side: Apollon Smirnis keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Apollon Smirnis have failed to score in 80% of games; Panathinaikos in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Apollon Smirnis home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Apollon Smirnis play Panathinaikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 10% of Apollon Smirnis's recent matches and 50% of Panathinaikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Apollon Smirnis vs Panathinaikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Apollon Smirnis's recent games and 50% of Panathinaikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Apollon Smirnis and Panathinaikos tend to score early?
Apollon Smirnis have had a goal before half-time in 30% of their recent matches, Panathinaikos in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Panathinaikos run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Apollon Smirnis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat Apollon Smirnis 0-3 at Stadio Georgios Kamaras, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Apollon Smirnis 0.66 xG and Panathinaikos 0.94 xG, a combined 1.59. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Panathinaikos outscored their 0.94 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Apollon Smirnis attack 0.48 / defence 1.01 against Panathinaikos attack 0.82 / defence 1.36, drawn from 21/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Apollon Smirnis 25% | Draw 35% | Panathinaikos 41%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 47% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Apollon Smirnis 38%, Panathinaikos 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 31%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Apollon Smirnis's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 71% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Panathinaikos's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.48. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Apollon Smirnis (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.