AEK Athens FC 4-0 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AEK Athens FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this AEK Athens FC vs PAOK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PAOK make the trip to OPAP Arena to face AEK Athens FC in Super League 1, Championship Round - 6. The match kicks off on Wednesday 26 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
AEK Athens FC's overall Super League 1 record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at OPAP Arena, AEK Athens FC have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at OPAP Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
PAOK (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, PAOK have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form favours the hosts. AEK Athens FC's 2.20 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of PAOK's 1.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
AEK Athens FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
PAOK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 43% versus PAOK 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 54% | PAOK 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 1.27 xG and PAOK 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.389 / defence 0.853 | PAOK attack 1.192 / defence 0.737. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.000. AEK Athens FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.389 — their λ of 1.27 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. PAOK's defence strength of 0.737 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 52 AEK Athens FC games / 52 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 38% | Draw 36% | PAOK 26%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 2.63 | Draw 2.78 | PAOK 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AEK Athens FC are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: AEK Athens FC 30% | PAOK 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 6 | Venue: OPAP Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 38% | Draw 36% | PAOK 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 50% | xG AEK Athens FC 1.27 / PAOK 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.389 / def 0.853 | PAOK attack 1.192 / def 0.737 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
1.02
PAOK xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs PAOK kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs PAOK kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 26 April 2023 at OPAP Arena.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs PAOK?
AEK Athens FC 4 - 0 PAOK.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at OPAP Arena.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs PAOK part of?
AEK Athens FC vs PAOK is a Championship Round - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 38% chance of winning, PAOK a 26% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both AEK Athens FC and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and PAOK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AEK Athens FC and PAOK in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. PAOK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates AEK Athens FC's attack at 1.39x the league average against PAOK's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.19x) against AEK Athens FC's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
38%
2.61
36%
2.78
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
2.29
1.02
PAOK xG
2.61
38%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
7%
13.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.3 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.1 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 1.02 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AEK Athens FC come into this having played 67 games, going 39W 11D 17L for 1.91 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, PAOK sit at 1.85 PPG from 67 outings (36W 16D 15L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.91 PPG for AEK Athens FC against 1.85 for PAOK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
AEK Athens FC's home form reads 21W 3D 9L across 33 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, PAOK have taken 1.73 points per game from 33 outings (16W 9D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AEK Athens FC are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.63 scored and 0.85 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games; PAOK in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Current Season
PAOK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and PAOK in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 39W 11D 17L in their last 67 games (1.91 PPG), while PAOK have gone 36W 16D 15L in their last 67 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or PAOK away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 2.00 PPG; PAOK away: 1.73 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, PAOK in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AEK Athens FC won 3-0 on 19 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AEK Athens FC have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AEK Athens FC
4
Draws
4
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 2, PAOK have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when PAOK 1-1 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AEK Athens FC 39%, PAOK 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (AEK Athens FC) and 46% (PAOK).
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; PAOK in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 46% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of AEK Athens FC's recent games and 46% of PAOK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AEK Athens FC and PAOK tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, PAOK in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AEK Athens FC run riot with a 4-0 hammering of PAOK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat PAOK 4-0 at OPAP Arena, Championship Round - 6, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.27 xG and PAOK 1.02 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. AEK Athens FC beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PAOK landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.39 / defence 0.85 against PAOK attack 1.19 / defence 0.74, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 38% | Draw 36% | PAOK 26%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 54%, PAOK 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
PAOK's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AEK Athens FC 1.91 PPG, PAOK 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AEK Athens FC win broke the near-deadlock. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.85 average — above their attacking norm. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.