AEK Athens FC 1-0 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AEK Athens FC at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AEK Athens FC vs Panathinaikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis plays host to AEK Athens FC versus Panathinaikos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 5 December 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
AEK Athens FC (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, AEK Athens FC have posted 4W 0D 1L at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
Panathinaikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panathinaikos's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 3L across 5 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward AEK Athens FC. A 0.60 PPG lead over Panathinaikos (2.00 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
AEK Athens FC half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Panathinaikos half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 64% versus Panathinaikos 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (AEK Athens FC 82% | Panathinaikos 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 1.51 xG and Panathinaikos 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.262 / defence 1.061 | Panathinaikos attack 0.769 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.320. AEK Athens FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — their λ of 1.51 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 11 AEK Athens FC games / 11 Panathinaikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 46% | Draw 27% | Panathinaikos 26%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Panathinaikos 3.85. AEK Athens FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AEK Athens FC at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: AEK Athens FC 40% | Panathinaikos 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 46% | Draw 27% | Panathinaikos 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG AEK Athens FC 1.51 / Panathinaikos 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.262 / def 1.061 | Panathinaikos attack 0.769 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Panathinaikos xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs Panathinaikos kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs Panathinaikos?
AEK Athens FC 1 - 0 Panathinaikos.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs Panathinaikos part of?
AEK Athens FC vs Panathinaikos is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 46% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both AEK Athens FC and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Panathinaikos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AEK Athens FC and Panathinaikos in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Panathinaikos (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
AEK Athens FC's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Panathinaikos's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Panathinaikos's attack (0.77x) against AEK Athens FC's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
46%
2.15
27%
3.66
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
2.59
1.08
Panathinaikos xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
6%
17.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.2 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 1.08 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs Panathinaikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AEK Athens FC's recent record stands at 7W 2D 2L from 11 games, a 2.09 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panathinaikos, meanwhile, have gone 5W 2D 4L across 11 games — 1.55 PPG, with L-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Panathinaikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours AEK Athens FC by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Panathinaikos heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, AEK Athens FC have managed 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — 2.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Panathinaikos's away record stands at 1W 1D 3L across 5 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Panathinaikos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AEK Athens FC are averaging 2.18 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 1.82 scored and 0.91 conceded. AEK Athens FC's scoring rate against Panathinaikos's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: AEK Athens FC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Panathinaikos in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Blended
Panathinaikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 7W 2D 2L in their last 11 games (2.09 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 5W 2D 4L in their last 11 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or Panathinaikos away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 2.40 PPG; Panathinaikos away: 0.80 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AEK Athens FC won 4-0 on 18 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AEK Athens FC have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Panathinaikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
AEK Athens FC
1
Draws
4
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Panathinaikos?
From 10 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 5, Panathinaikos have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and Panathinaikos last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when AEK Athens FC 2-1 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and Panathinaikos?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AEK Athens FC 40%, Panathinaikos 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for AEK Athens FC and 40% for Panathinaikos. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Panathinaikos in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play Panathinaikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 40% of Panathinaikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs Panathinaikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of AEK Athens FC's matches and 40% of Panathinaikos's.
Do AEK Athens FC and Panathinaikos tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Panathinaikos in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AEK Athens FC edge out Panathinaikos 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat Panathinaikos 1-0 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.51 xG and Panathinaikos 1.08 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Panathinaikos landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.26 / defence 1.06 against Panathinaikos attack 0.77 / defence 1.07, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 46% | Draw 27% | Panathinaikos 26%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 82%, Panathinaikos 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Panathinaikos's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.55. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.