AEK Athens FC 2-3 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus make the trip to Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis to face AEK Athens FC in Super League 1, Championship Round - 10. The match kicks off on Tuesday 17 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
AEK Athens FC's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
AEK Athens FC's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Olympiakos Piraeus away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
AEK Athens FC — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 54% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 57% | Olympiakos Piraeus 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 1.11 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.151 / defence 1.126 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.043 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 0.985 / away 1.050. Data: 26 AEK Athens FC games / 26 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 33% | Draw 28% | Olympiakos Piraeus 39%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: AEK Athens FC 50% | Olympiakos Piraeus 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 10 | Venue: Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 33% | Draw 28% | Olympiakos Piraeus 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG AEK Athens FC 1.11 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.151 / def 1.126 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.043 / def 0.981 | league avg home 0.985 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 17 May 2022 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
AEK Athens FC 2 - 3 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Championship Round - 10 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 33% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AEK Athens FC's attack at 1.15x the league average against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.04x) against AEK Athens FC's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
33%
3.03
28%
3.56
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
2.35
1.23
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
10%
10.40
13%
7.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 11.8 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 1.23 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 35 outings, AEK Athens FC have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 16W 8D 11L record — W-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 24W 8D 3L from 35 games, 2.29 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 0.69 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AEK Athens FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AEK Athens FC have posted 1.71 PPG from 17 outings (9W 2D 6L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 11W 4D 2L from 17 away games — 2.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AEK Athens FC are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.69 scored and 0.69 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Current Season
Olympiakos Piraeus
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 16W 8D 11L in their last 35 games (1.60 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 24W 8D 3L in their last 35 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 1.71 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.18 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-1 on 24 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AEK Athens FC have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AEK Athens FC
2
Draws
6
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 2, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when AEK Athens FC 1-1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AEK Athens FC 47%, Olympiakos Piraeus 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (AEK Athens FC) and 53% (Olympiakos Piraeus). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 6% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 53% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of AEK Athens FC's matches and 53% of Olympiakos Piraeus's.
Do AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Olympiakos Piraeus edge out AEK Athens FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat AEK Athens FC 2-3 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis, Championship Round - 10, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.11 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.23 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. AEK Athens FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Olympiakos Piraeus outscored their 1.23 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.15 / defence 1.13 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.04 / defence 0.98, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 33% | Draw 28% | Olympiakos Piraeus 39%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 57%, Olympiakos Piraeus 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.60. Form held, and they took the win. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.