AEK Athens FC 2-3 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AEK Athens FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus make the trip to Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis to face AEK Athens FC in Super League 1, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 21 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
AEK Athens FC's overall Super League 1 record this term: 6W 2D 1L from 9 games (2.22 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.22 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AEK Athens FC's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 0L across 4 games at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 4 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.22 — AEK Athens FC are significantly better at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis than their overall form suggests.
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 2.56 PPG across 9 Super League 1 outings this season: 7W 2D 0L. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 0.56. Defensively, 0.56 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 9 outings (44%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus away from home this season: 4W 0D 0L from 4 away games — 3.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.22 vs 2.56 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
AEK Athens FC — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 56% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (AEK Athens FC 78% | Olympiakos Piraeus 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 1.40 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.289 / defence 0.891 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.074 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.031 / away 1.249. AEK Athens FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.289 — their λ of 1.40 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 9 AEK Athens FC games / 9 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 40% | Draw 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 30%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AEK Athens FC are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: AEK Athens FC 25% | Olympiakos Piraeus 75%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 40% | Draw 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG AEK Athens FC 1.40 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.289 / def 0.891 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.074 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.031 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
AEK Athens FC 2 - 3 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 40% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 6W-2D-1L in 9 | 2.22 PPG | GF 2.22 / GA 1.11 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 7W-2D-0L in 9 | 2.56 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 0.56 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AEK Athens FC's attack at 1.29x the league average against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.07x) against AEK Athens FC's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
40%
2.50
30%
3.37
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
2.59
1.20
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
12%
8.27
8%
13.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.5 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 1.20 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 9 outings, AEK Athens FC have picked up 2.22 PPG on a 6W 2D 1L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 7W 2D 0L from 9 games, 2.56 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.22 PPG for AEK Athens FC against 2.56 for Olympiakos Piraeus. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AEK Athens FC have posted 3.00 PPG from 4 outings (4W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.22 PPG overall — AEK Athens FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 away games — 3.00 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 2.56 PPG overall record — Olympiakos Piraeus travel well.
Attack vs Defence
AEK Athens FC are averaging 2.22 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.67 scored and 0.56 conceded. AEK Athens FC's scoring rate against Olympiakos Piraeus's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 6W 2D 1L in their last 9 games (2.22 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 7W 2D 0L in their last 9 (2.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 3.00 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 3.00 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-1 on 24 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AEK Athens FC have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AEK Athens FC
2
Draws
6
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 2, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when AEK Athens FC 1-1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AEK Athens FC 25%, Olympiakos Piraeus 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for AEK Athens FC and 75% for Olympiakos Piraeus. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 75% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of AEK Athens FC's matches and 75% of Olympiakos Piraeus's.
Do AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Olympiakos Piraeus defy the odds to beat AEK Athens FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat AEK Athens FC 2-3 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.40 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.20 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus outscored their 1.20 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.29 / defence 0.89 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.07 / defence 1.05, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 40% | Draw 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 30%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Olympiakos Piraeus win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 78%, Olympiakos Piraeus 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AEK Athens FC 2.22 PPG, Olympiakos Piraeus 2.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Olympiakos Piraeus win broke the near-deadlock. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.