Werder Bremen 2-2 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VfB Stuttgart make the trip to wohninvest WESERSTADION to face Werder Bremen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 August 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Werder Bremen (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Werder Bremen have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Werder Bremen at wohninvest WESERSTADION this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Werder Bremen are significantly better at wohninvest WESERSTADION than their overall form suggests.
VfB Stuttgart have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: L D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. VfB Stuttgart have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, VfB Stuttgart have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Werder Bremen, 1.20 for VfB Stuttgart — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Werder Bremen lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2021, ended 0–1 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Werder Bremen half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
VfB Stuttgart half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Werder Bremen 66% and VfB Stuttgart 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 69% | VfB Stuttgart 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.37 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.858 / defence 1.150 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.863 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.657 / away 1.564. Data: 1 Werder Bremen games / 35 VfB Stuttgart games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 33% | Draw 27% | VfB Stuttgart 41%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | VfB Stuttgart 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfB Stuttgart at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 60% | VfB Stuttgart 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 33% | Draw 27% | VfB Stuttgart 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Werder Bremen 1.37 / VfB Stuttgart 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.858 / def 1.150 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.863 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.657 / away 1.564 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.55
VfB Stuttgart xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Werder Bremen 2 - 2 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 33% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (2 meetings): Werder Bremen 0W | Draws 0 | VfB Stuttgart 2W.
What form are Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Werder Bremen's attack at 0.86x the league average against VfB Stuttgart's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — VfB Stuttgart's attack (0.86x) against Werder Bremen's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
The sample (1/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
33%
3.07
27%
3.77
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
2.92
1.55
VfB Stuttgart xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
21%
4.72
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
7%
14.46
10%
9.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.5 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.55 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Werder Bremen come into this having played 35 games, going 18W 10D 7L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Werder Bremen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, VfB Stuttgart sit at 0.97 PPG from 35 outings (7W 13D 15L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Werder Bremen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Werder Bremen's home form reads 8W 6D 3L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, VfB Stuttgart have taken 0.65 points per game from 17 outings (1W 8D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Werder Bremen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.20 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 66%.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Early Season
VfB Stuttgart
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 18W 10D 7L in their last 35 games (1.83 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 7W 13D 15L in their last 35 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
Werder Bremen's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.76 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 0-4 on 14 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Werder Bremen have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Werder Bremen
3
Draws
4
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 3, VfB Stuttgart have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Werder Bremen see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
VfB Stuttgart see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 59%, VfB Stuttgart 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Werder Bremen) and 35% (VfB Stuttgart).
On the defensive side: Werder Bremen keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; VfB Stuttgart in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Werder Bremen's games and 53% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Werder Bremen's recent games and 35% of VfB Stuttgart's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart finished level at 2-2 at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 2, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.37 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.55 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against VfB Stuttgart attack 0.86 / defence 0.96, drawn from 1/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 33% | Draw 27% | VfB Stuttgart 41%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 69%, VfB Stuttgart 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Werder Bremen arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.