Werder Bremen 0-2 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Union Berlin at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Werder Bremen and Union Berlin meet at wohninvest WESERSTADION in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 January 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Werder Bremen have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Werder Bremen have gone 1W 2D 3L this season (6 games, 0.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Union Berlin (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D L D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin's away record: 2W 3D 1L from 6 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Union Berlin are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Werder Bremen register both teams scoring in 83% of relevant games, Union Berlin in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Werder Bremen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Union Berlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Werder Bremen 77% and Union Berlin 85% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 38% | Union Berlin 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.30 xG and Union Berlin 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.820 / defence 1.187 | Union Berlin attack 0.859 / defence 1.320. League average goals — home 1.199 / away 1.569. Union Berlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.320 — this is suppressing Werder Bremen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Werder Bremen games / 13 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 28% | Draw 31% | Union Berlin 41%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | Union Berlin 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Berlin at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Berlin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 83% | Union Berlin 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Jan 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 28% | Draw 31% | Union Berlin 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 61% | xG Werder Bremen 1.30 / Union Berlin 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.820 / def 1.187 | Union Berlin attack 0.859 / def 1.320 | league avg home 1.199 / away 1.569 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Union Berlin xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin kick off?
Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 2 January 2021 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin?
Werder Bremen 0 - 2 Union Berlin.
Where is Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin part of?
Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 28% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Werder Bremen and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Union Berlin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Werder Bremen and Union Berlin in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Werder Bremen's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Union Berlin's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Union Berlin's attack (0.86x) against Werder Bremen's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
28%
3.62
31%
3.19
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
2.90
1.60
Union Berlin xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
20%
4.95
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
6%
17.91
11%
8.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.5 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.60 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 13 outings, Werder Bremen have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 3W 5D 5L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union Berlin's form line: 5W 6D 2L from 13 games, 1.62 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-W. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Union Berlin are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Werder Bremen.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Werder Bremen have posted 0.83 PPG from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L).
On the road, Union Berlin have gone 2W 3D 1L from 6 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 2.08 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games; Union Berlin in 85%.
Last 13 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 3W 5D 5L in their last 13 games (1.08 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 5W 6D 2L in their last 13 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or Union Berlin away?
Union Berlin's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 0.83 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Werder Bremen have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Werder Bremen won 4-1 on 21 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Werder Bremen have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Werder Bremen
1
Draws
5
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 4, Union Berlin have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Union Berlin 1-4 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Union Berlin see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Werder Bremen, 100% for Union Berlin — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Werder Bremen) and 67% (Union Berlin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play Union Berlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Werder Bremen's games and 100% of Union Berlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Werder Bremen's matches and 67% of Union Berlin's.
Do Werder Bremen and Union Berlin tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Werder Bremen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat Werder Bremen 0-2 at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.30 xG and Union Berlin 1.60 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Werder Bremen fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.82 / defence 1.19 against Union Berlin attack 0.86 / defence 1.32, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 28% | Draw 31% | Union Berlin 41%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 38%, Union Berlin 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 81%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Union Berlin's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 85% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Berlin arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Union Berlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.