Werder Bremen 1-2 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Werder Bremen at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SC Freiburg make the trip to wohninvest WESERSTADION to face Werder Bremen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 16 April 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Werder Bremen have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Werder Bremen's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 games at wohninvest WESERSTADION this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SC Freiburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. SC Freiburg are 0.50 PPG clear of Werder Bremen in recent Bundesliga fixtures (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Werder Bremen, 1 for SC Freiburg and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 0–2 with SC Freiburg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Werder Bremen — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 96% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
SC Freiburg — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Werder Bremen 66% and SC Freiburg 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 67% | SC Freiburg 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.55 xG and SC Freiburg 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.882 / defence 1.227 | SC Freiburg attack 0.865 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.757 / away 1.297. Data: 27 Werder Bremen games / 61 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 39% | Draw 30% | SC Freiburg 31%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | SC Freiburg 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Werder Bremen are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SC Freiburg (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Werder Bremen 60% | SC Freiburg 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 39% | Draw 30% | SC Freiburg 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 62% | xG Werder Bremen 1.55 / SC Freiburg 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.882 / def 1.227 | SC Freiburg attack 0.865 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.757 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.38
SC Freiburg xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg kick off?
Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg?
Werder Bremen 1 - 2 SC Freiburg.
Where is Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg part of?
Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 39% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Werder Bremen and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and SC Freiburg?
Record (3 meetings): Werder Bremen 0W | Draws 2 | SC Freiburg 1W.
What form are Werder Bremen and SC Freiburg in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Werder Bremen's attack at 0.88x the league average against SC Freiburg's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SC Freiburg's attack (0.86x) against Werder Bremen's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 27/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
39%
2.55
30%
3.37
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
2.93
1.38
SC Freiburg xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.63
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
10%
10.12
7%
15.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.4 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.38 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Werder Bremen's recent record stands at 27W 14D 20L from 61 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Freiburg, meanwhile, have gone 28W 18D 15L across 61 games — 1.67 PPG, with D-W-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Werder Bremen against 1.67 for SC Freiburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Werder Bremen have managed 13W 6D 11L from 30 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Freiburg's away record stands at 12W 9D 9L across 30 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.59 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 27W 14D 20L in their last 61 games (1.56 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 28W 18D 15L in their last 61 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or SC Freiburg away?
Werder Bremen's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.50 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Werder Bremen or SC Freiburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Werder Bremen have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, SC Freiburg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: SC Freiburg have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Freiburg won 5-0 on 21 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Werder Bremen have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SC Freiburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Werder Bremen
2
Draws
7
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 1, SC Freiburg have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when SC Freiburg 1-0 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 60%, SC Freiburg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Werder Bremen) and 57% (SC Freiburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg in 40%; SC Freiburg in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play SC Freiburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Werder Bremen's games and 50% of SC Freiburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Werder Bremen's matches and 57% of SC Freiburg's.
Do Werder Bremen and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SC Freiburg defy the odds to beat Werder Bremen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat Werder Bremen 1-2 at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 28, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.55 xG and SC Freiburg 1.38 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.88 / defence 1.23 against SC Freiburg attack 0.86 / defence 1.00, drawn from 27/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 39% | Draw 30% | SC Freiburg 31%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual SC Freiburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 67%, SC Freiburg 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.56 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.