Werder Bremen 1-2 RB Leipzig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Werder Bremen at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Werder Bremen host RB Leipzig at wohninvest WESERSTADION in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 November 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Werder Bremen — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Werder Bremen have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, RB Leipzig stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for RB Leipzig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Leipzig's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Werder Bremen 1.60 PPG, RB Leipzig 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Werder Bremen register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, RB Leipzig in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Werder Bremen have won 0, RB Leipzig 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2021, ended 1–4 with RB Leipzig winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Werder Bremen trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 76% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
RB Leipzig trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Werder Bremen 65% and RB Leipzig 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 65% | RB Leipzig 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.80 xG and RB Leipzig 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.895 / defence 1.150 | RB Leipzig attack 1.102 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.894 / away 1.325. Data: 14 Werder Bremen games / 48 RB Leipzig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 41% | Draw 22% | RB Leipzig 36%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 2.44 | Draw 4.55 | RB Leipzig 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Werder Bremen as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.48 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 60% | RB Leipzig 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 41% | Draw 22% | RB Leipzig 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Werder Bremen 1.80 / RB Leipzig 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.895 / def 1.150 | RB Leipzig attack 1.102 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.894 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.68
RB Leipzig xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig kick off?
Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig?
Werder Bremen 1 - 2 RB Leipzig.
Where is Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig part of?
Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 41% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 36% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig?
Record (2 meetings): Werder Bremen 0W | Draws 0 | RB Leipzig 2W.
What form are Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. RB Leipzig (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Werder Bremen's attack rating (0.90) and RB Leipzig's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, RB Leipzig's attack versus Werder Bremen's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
41%
2.42
22%
4.48
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
3.48
1.68
RB Leipzig xG
2.42
41%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
19%
5.37
17%
6.06
Win to Nil
8%
12.99
6%
16.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.3 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.68 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Werder Bremen have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 24W 12D 12L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RB Leipzig's form line: 24W 11D 13L from 48 games, 1.73 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. The sample for RB Leipzig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Werder Bremen on 1.75 PPG, RB Leipzig on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Werder Bremen have posted 1.67 PPG from 24 outings (11W 7D 6L).
On the road, RB Leipzig have gone 7W 8D 9L from 24 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of RB Leipzig's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Werder Bremen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 2.08 scored and 1.19 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
RB Leipzig
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 24W 12D 12L in their last 48 games (1.75 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 24W 11D 13L in their last 48 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or RB Leipzig away?
Werder Bremen's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.67 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
RB Leipzig go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2021, when RB Leipzig won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Werder Bremen's record when hosting RB Leipzig specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Werder Bremen
3
Draws
7
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig?
From 10 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 0, RB Leipzig have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Werder Bremen 1-2 RB Leipzig.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Werder Bremen see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 58%, RB Leipzig 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Werder Bremen) and 46% (RB Leipzig).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play RB Leipzig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Werder Bremen's games and 67% of RB Leipzig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Werder Bremen's recent games and 46% of RB Leipzig's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, RB Leipzig in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as RB Leipzig defy the odds to beat Werder Bremen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Leipzig beat Werder Bremen 1-2 at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.80 xG and RB Leipzig 1.68 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Werder Bremen fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.90 / defence 1.15 against RB Leipzig attack 1.10 / defence 1.06, drawn from 14/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 41% | Draw 22% | RB Leipzig 36%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual RB Leipzig win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 65%, RB Leipzig 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
RB Leipzig's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.75 PPG, RB Leipzig 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Leipzig win broke the near-deadlock. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.