Werder Bremen 1-0 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Werder Bremen vs Hertha BSC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Hertha BSC travel to wohninvest WESERSTADION to take on Werder Bremen. The game is scheduled for Friday 28 October 2022, 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Werder Bremen — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Werder Bremen's home record at wohninvest WESERSTADION: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Hertha BSC have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Werder Bremen 1.40 PPG, Hertha BSC 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Werder Bremen register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Hertha BSC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Werder Bremen, 1 for Hertha BSC and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2021, ended 4–1 with Werder Bremen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Werder Bremen in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 81% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Hertha BSC in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Werder Bremen 64% and Hertha BSC 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 64% | Hertha BSC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.62 xG and Hertha BSC 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.972 / defence 1.265 | Hertha BSC attack 0.988 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.784 / away 1.377. Data: 11 Werder Bremen games / 45 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 36% | Draw 24% | Hertha BSC 40%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 2.78 | Draw 4.17 | Hertha BSC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hertha BSC are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.34 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 60% | Hertha BSC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs Hertha BSC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Friday 28 Oct 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 36% | Draw 24% | Hertha BSC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Werder Bremen 1.62 / Hertha BSC 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.972 / def 1.265 | Hertha BSC attack 0.988 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.784 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Hertha BSC xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs Hertha BSC kick off?
Werder Bremen vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 28 October 2022 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs Hertha BSC?
Werder Bremen 1 - 0 Hertha BSC.
Where is Werder Bremen vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs Hertha BSC part of?
Werder Bremen vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 36% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Werder Bremen and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Hertha BSC?
Record (2 meetings): Werder Bremen 1W | Draws 0 | Hertha BSC 1W.
What form are Werder Bremen and Hertha BSC in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Hertha BSC (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Werder Bremen's attack rating (0.97) and Hertha BSC's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus Werder Bremen's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
36%
2.78
24%
4.18
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
3.34
1.72
Hertha BSC xG
2.78
36%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.50
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
18%
5.60
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
6%
15.56
8%
12.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.9 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.0 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.72 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Werder Bremen come into this having played 45 games, going 22W 12D 11L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hertha BSC sit at 1.04 PPG from 45 outings (12W 11D 22L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Werder Bremen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Hertha BSC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Werder Bremen's home form reads 9W 7D 6L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Hertha BSC have taken 0.86 points per game from 22 outings (5W 4D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Werder Bremen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.13 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Hertha BSC in 60%.
Last 45 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 22W 12D 11L in their last 45 games (1.73 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 12W 11D 22L in their last 45 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or Hertha BSC away?
Werder Bremen's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.55 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Werder Bremen and Hertha BSC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Werder Bremen have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Sep 2020, when Hertha BSC won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Werder Bremen's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Werder Bremen
0
Draws
1
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Hertha BSC?
From 4 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 3, Hertha BSC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Hertha BSC 2-4 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and Hertha BSC?
Werder Bremen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Werder Bremen see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 59%, Hertha BSC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Werder Bremen) and 54% (Hertha BSC).
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play Hertha BSC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Werder Bremen's recent matches and 46% of Hertha BSC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Werder Bremen vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Werder Bremen's recent games and 54% of Hertha BSC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Werder Bremen and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Werder Bremen defy the odds to beat Hertha BSC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen beat Hertha BSC 1-0 at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.62 xG and Hertha BSC 1.72 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hertha BSC landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.97 / defence 1.26 against Hertha BSC attack 0.99 / defence 0.94, drawn from 11/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 36% | Draw 24% | Hertha BSC 40%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Werder Bremen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 64%, Hertha BSC 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Werder Bremen arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.04. Form held, and they took the win. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.