Werder Bremen 3-4 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 47%, yet in-form Werder Bremen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Eintracht Frankfurt travel to wohninvest WESERSTADION to take on Werder Bremen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 August 2022, 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Werder Bremen have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Werder Bremen have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Werder Bremen's home record at wohninvest WESERSTADION: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Eintracht Frankfurt — All Games: 0W 6D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Eintracht Frankfurt have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Werder Bremen carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Werder Bremen register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Werder Bremen, 0 for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2021, ended 2–1 with Werder Bremen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Werder Bremen in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Werder Bremen 68% and Eintracht Frankfurt 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 70% | Eintracht Frankfurt 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.36 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.987 / defence 1.227 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.911 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.598. Data: 3 Werder Bremen games / 37 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 28% | Draw 25% | Eintracht Frankfurt 47%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2.13. Eintracht Frankfurt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.79) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eintracht Frankfurt are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Werder Bremen (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 70% | Eintracht Frankfurt 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 28% | Draw 25% | Eintracht Frankfurt 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Werder Bremen 1.36 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.987 / def 1.227 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.911 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.598 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Werder Bremen 3 - 4 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 28% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (2 meetings): Werder Bremen 1W | Draws 1 | Eintracht Frankfurt 0W.
What form are Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Werder Bremen's attack at 0.99x the league average against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus Werder Bremen's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
28%
3.51
25%
4.02
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
3.15
1.79
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
3.51
28%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
17%
5.97
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
5%
20.98
12%
8.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.79 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Werder Bremen's recent record stands at 19W 11D 7L from 37 games, a 1.84 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Werder Bremen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Eintracht Frankfurt, meanwhile, have gone 10W 14D 13L across 37 games — 1.19 PPG, with D-D-L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Werder Bremen by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Eintracht Frankfurt heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Werder Bremen have managed 8W 7D 3L from 18 games — 1.72 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record stands at 6W 6D 6L across 18 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.30 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Eintracht Frankfurt in 68%.
Last 37 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Early Season
Eintracht Frankfurt
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 19W 11D 7L in their last 37 games (1.84 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 10W 14D 13L in their last 37 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
Werder Bremen's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.72 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Aug 2025, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Werder Bremen's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Werder Bremen
4
Draws
4
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 2, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when Werder Bremen 3-3 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Werder Bremen see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 61%, Eintracht Frankfurt 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Werder Bremen) and 44% (Eintracht Frankfurt).
On the defensive side: Werder Bremen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Eintracht Frankfurt in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Werder Bremen's games and 67% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Werder Bremen's recent games and 44% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Eintracht Frankfurt edge out Werder Bremen 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat Werder Bremen 3-4 at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.36 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.79 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Werder Bremen beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Eintracht Frankfurt outscored their 1.79 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.99 / defence 1.23 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.91 / defence 1.01, drawn from 3/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 28% | Draw 25% | Eintracht Frankfurt 47%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 70%, Eintracht Frankfurt 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Werder Bremen arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.19. Form was overturned, with Eintracht Frankfurt winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.