Werder Bremen 1-2 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Dortmund at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 12 as Werder Bremen welcome Borussia Dortmund to wohninvest WESERSTADION. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 15 December 2020 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Werder Bremen have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Werder Bremen's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 2L across 5 games at wohninvest WESERSTADION this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Borussia Dortmund — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 1L across 5 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Borussia Dortmund's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Werder Bremen's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Werder Bremen in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Werder Bremen 82% and Borussia Dortmund 46% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 36% | Borussia Dortmund 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.03 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.785 / defence 1.127 | Borussia Dortmund attack 0.951 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.618. Werder Bremen's attack strength of 0.785 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 11 Werder Bremen games / 11 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 19% | Draw 30% | Borussia Dortmund 51%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 5.26 | Draw 3.33 | Borussia Dortmund 1.96. Borussia Dortmund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 80% | Borussia Dortmund 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Dec 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 19% | Draw 30% | Borussia Dortmund 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Werder Bremen 1.03 / Borussia Dortmund 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.785 / def 1.127 | Borussia Dortmund attack 0.951 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.618 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Borussia Dortmund xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 15 December 2020 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Werder Bremen 1 - 2 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 19% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 51% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Werder Bremen's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Borussia Dortmund's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus Werder Bremen's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
19%
5.28
30%
3.28
51%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
2.76
1.73
Borussia Dortmund xG
5.28
19%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
1.98
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
18%
5.66
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
3%
29.86
18%
5.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.73 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Werder Bremen's recent record stands at 2W 5D 4L from 11 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Dortmund, meanwhile, have gone 6W 1D 4L across 11 games — 1.73 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Borussia Dortmund by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Werder Bremen heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Werder Bremen have managed 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Borussia Dortmund's away record stands at 3W 1D 1L across 5 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.09 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 82% of their recent games.
Defensively: Borussia Dortmund in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 2W 5D 4L in their last 11 games (1.00 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 6W 1D 4L in their last 11 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Dortmund's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.00 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Werder Bremen or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Werder Bremen have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Borussia Dortmund have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2021, when Borussia Dortmund won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Werder Bremen's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Werder Bremen
2
Draws
7
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 1, Borussia Dortmund have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Werder Bremen 0-2 Borussia Dortmund.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 80%, Borussia Dortmund 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Werder Bremen and 20% for Borussia Dortmund.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Werder Bremen's games and 40% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Werder Bremen's recent games and 20% of Borussia Dortmund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Borussia Dortmund edge out Werder Bremen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat Werder Bremen 1-2 at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.03 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.73 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.79 / defence 1.13 against Borussia Dortmund attack 0.95 / defence 0.99, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 19% | Draw 30% | Borussia Dortmund 51%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 36%, Borussia Dortmund 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.