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Poisson model favours Bayern München (76%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Werder Bremen face Bayern München.

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Match Analysis

Werder Bremen host Bayern München at Weserstadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 February 2026 at 14:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Bundesliga games this season, Werder Bremen have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Werder Bremen at Weserstadion this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Werder Bremen are significantly better at Weserstadion than their overall form suggests.

Bayern München — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bayern München, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Bayern München have gone 8W 2D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 3.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bayern München — 1.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

Bayern München have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 7 of the last 9 encounters against Werder Bremen's 1 victories.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2025, ended 0–4 with Bayern München winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bayern München have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Patterns

Werder Bremen in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Bayern München in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 66%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Werder Bremen 49% versus Bayern München 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Werder Bremen 60% | Bayern München 86%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 0.99 xG and Bayern München 2.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.772 / defence 1.166 | Bayern München attack 1.773 / defence 0.776. League average goals — home 1.657 / away 1.415. Werder Bremen's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bayern München's defence strength of 0.776 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bayern München have an above-average attack strength of 1.773 — the away xG of 2.93 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Werder Bremen games / 55 Bayern München games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 9% | Draw 15% | Bayern München 76%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 11.11 | Draw 6.67 | Bayern München 1.32. The model has a clear lean to Bayern München (76%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.92. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.92 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 60% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Bayern München as the most likely outcome at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

The Poisson model projects 3.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 50% | Bayern München 60% BTTS from recent games.

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