Werder Bremen 1-2 1899 Hoffenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Werder Bremen at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Werder Bremen host 1899 Hoffenheim at wohninvest WESERSTADION in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 April 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Werder Bremen — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Werder Bremen have gone 5W 0D 5L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Werder Bremen are significantly better at wohninvest WESERSTADION than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, 1899 Hoffenheim have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1899 Hoffenheim's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Werder Bremen have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Werder Bremen register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, 1899 Hoffenheim in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Werder Bremen have won 1, 1899 Hoffenheim 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Werder Bremen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Werder Bremen trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
1899 Hoffenheim trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Werder Bremen 64% and 1899 Hoffenheim 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Werder Bremen 66% | 1899 Hoffenheim 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.90 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.942 / defence 1.193 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.921 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.757 / away 1.259. Data: 25 Werder Bremen games / 59 1899 Hoffenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 47% | Draw 28% | 1899 Hoffenheim 25%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | 1899 Hoffenheim 4.00. Werder Bremen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Werder Bremen at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 60% | 1899 Hoffenheim 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Apr 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 47% | Draw 28% | 1899 Hoffenheim 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Werder Bremen 1.90 / 1899 Hoffenheim 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.942 / def 1.193 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.921 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.757 / away 1.259 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.38
1899 Hoffenheim xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 2 April 2023 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Werder Bremen 1 - 2 1899 Hoffenheim.
Where is Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim part of?
Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 47% chance of winning, 1899 Hoffenheim a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Werder Bremen and 1899 Hoffenheim will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and 1899 Hoffenheim?
Record (3 meetings): Werder Bremen 1W | Draws 1 | 1899 Hoffenheim 1W.
What form are Werder Bremen and 1899 Hoffenheim in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. 1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Werder Bremen's attack rating (0.94) and 1899 Hoffenheim's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, 1899 Hoffenheim's attack versus Werder Bremen's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
47%
2.12
28%
3.62
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
3.29
1.38
1899 Hoffenheim xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
15%
6.71
Win to Nil
12%
8.47
4%
26.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and 1899 Hoffenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.38 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, Werder Bremen have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 27W 13D 19L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1899 Hoffenheim's form line: 19W 11D 29L from 59 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for 1899 Hoffenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Werder Bremen are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against 1899 Hoffenheim.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Werder Bremen have posted 1.55 PPG from 29 outings (13W 6D 10L).
On the road, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 7W 5D 17L from 29 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Werder Bremen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; 1899 Hoffenheim are on 1.54 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; 1899 Hoffenheim in 61%.
Last 59 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and 1899 Hoffenheim in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 27W 13D 19L in their last 59 games (1.59 PPG), while 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 19W 11D 29L in their last 59 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or 1899 Hoffenheim away?
Werder Bremen's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.55 PPG; 1899 Hoffenheim away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Werder Bremen and 1899 Hoffenheim runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
1899 Hoffenheim go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Feb 2021, when 1899 Hoffenheim won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Werder Bremen's record when hosting 1899 Hoffenheim specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Werder Bremen
1
Draws
7
1899 Hoffenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and 1899 Hoffenheim?
From 10 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 2, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and 1899 Hoffenheim last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim 1-0 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and 1899 Hoffenheim?
1899 Hoffenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 59%, 1899 Hoffenheim 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Werder Bremen and 69% for 1899 Hoffenheim. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1899 Hoffenheim in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / 1899 Hoffenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play 1899 Hoffenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Werder Bremen's games and 55% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Werder Bremen's matches and 69% of 1899 Hoffenheim's.
Do Werder Bremen and 1899 Hoffenheim tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, 1899 Hoffenheim in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as 1899 Hoffenheim defy the odds to beat Werder Bremen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1899 Hoffenheim beat Werder Bremen 1-2 at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.90 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.38 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Werder Bremen fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.94 / defence 1.19 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.92 / defence 1.15, drawn from 25/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 47% | Draw 28% | 1899 Hoffenheim 25%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a 1899 Hoffenheim win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 66%, 1899 Hoffenheim 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Werder Bremen arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with 1899 Hoffenheim winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.