VfL Wolfsburg 3-2 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees VfB Stuttgart travel to VOLKSWAGEN ARENA to take on VfL Wolfsburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 October 2022, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfL Wolfsburg stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. VfL Wolfsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — VfL Wolfsburg are significantly better at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfB Stuttgart have recorded 1W 7D 2L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. VfB Stuttgart have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VfB Stuttgart's away record: 0W 7D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (VfL Wolfsburg) versus 1.00 (VfB Stuttgart). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for VfL Wolfsburg, 1 for VfB Stuttgart and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
VfL Wolfsburg trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfL Wolfsburg 39% versus VfB Stuttgart 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Wolfsburg 46% | VfB Stuttgart 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 1.40 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.045 / defence 1.136 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.949 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.412. Data: 41 VfL Wolfsburg games / 41 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 35% | Draw 25% | VfB Stuttgart 40%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | VfB Stuttgart 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VfL Wolfsburg 50% | VfB Stuttgart 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: VOLKSWAGEN ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 35% | Draw 25% | VfB Stuttgart 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG VfL Wolfsburg 1.40 / VfB Stuttgart 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.045 / def 1.136 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.949 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.52
VfB Stuttgart xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA.
What was the final score in VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
VfL Wolfsburg 3 - 2 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA.
What competition is VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives VfL Wolfsburg a 35% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (2 meetings): VfL Wolfsburg 0W | Draws 1 | VfB Stuttgart 1W.
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart in?
VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates VfL Wolfsburg's attack at 1.04x the league average against VfB Stuttgart's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus VfL Wolfsburg's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
35%
2.89
25%
3.95
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Total xG
2.92
1.52
VfB Stuttgart xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
8%
13.26
10%
10.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.5 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.52 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VfL Wolfsburg come into this having played 41 games, going 13W 8D 20L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, VfB Stuttgart sit at 0.93 PPG from 41 outings (7W 17D 17L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: VfL Wolfsburg on 1.15 PPG, VfB Stuttgart on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
VfL Wolfsburg's home form reads 7W 5D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, VfB Stuttgart have taken 0.70 points per game from 20 outings (1W 11D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfL Wolfsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
VfL Wolfsburg are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.17 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart in 66%.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Wolfsburg
Early Season
VfB Stuttgart
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
VfL Wolfsburg have gone 13W 8D 20L in their last 41 games (1.15 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 7W 17D 17L in their last 41 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Wolfsburg at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
VfL Wolfsburg's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Wolfsburg at home: 1.30 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 0.70 PPG.
Have VfL Wolfsburg or VfB Stuttgart been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfL Wolfsburg have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, VfB Stuttgart in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
VfB Stuttgart have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Mar 2026, when VfB Stuttgart won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfL Wolfsburg's record when hosting VfB Stuttgart specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
VfL Wolfsburg
2
Draws
5
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, VfL Wolfsburg have won 3, VfB Stuttgart have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 4-0 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfL Wolfsburg 45%, VfB Stuttgart 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (VfL Wolfsburg) and 40% (VfB Stuttgart).
On the defensive side: VfL Wolfsburg keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; VfB Stuttgart in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Wolfsburg home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Wolfsburg play VfB Stuttgart?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of VfL Wolfsburg's recent matches and 55% of VfB Stuttgart's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of VfL Wolfsburg's recent games and 40% of VfB Stuttgart's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
VfL Wolfsburg have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VfL Wolfsburg defy the odds to beat VfB Stuttgart 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Wolfsburg beat VfB Stuttgart 3-2 at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.40 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.52 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. VfL Wolfsburg beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.04 / defence 1.14 against VfB Stuttgart attack 0.95 / defence 0.96, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 35% | Draw 25% | VfB Stuttgart 40%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual VfL Wolfsburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 46%, VfB Stuttgart 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfL Wolfsburg 1.15 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfL Wolfsburg win broke the near-deadlock. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.