VfL Wolfsburg 1-0 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfL Wolfsburg at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VfL Wolfsburg host Union Berlin at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 March 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Wolfsburg's home record at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union Berlin stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Union Berlin have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Union Berlin's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of VfL Wolfsburg's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. VfL Wolfsburg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Union Berlin in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, VfL Wolfsburg have won 0, Union Berlin 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Union Berlin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
VfL Wolfsburg in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Union Berlin in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfL Wolfsburg 48% versus Union Berlin 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Wolfsburg 52% | Union Berlin 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 1.25 xG and Union Berlin 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.778 / defence 1.101 | Union Berlin attack 0.830 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.764 / away 1.354. VfL Wolfsburg's attack strength of 0.778 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 58 VfL Wolfsburg games / 58 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 36% | Draw 29% | Union Berlin 35%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Union Berlin 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfL Wolfsburg are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Union Berlin (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: VfL Wolfsburg 60% | Union Berlin 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: VOLKSWAGEN ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 36% | Draw 29% | Union Berlin 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG VfL Wolfsburg 1.25 / Union Berlin 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.778 / def 1.101 | Union Berlin attack 0.830 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.764 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Union Berlin xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin kick off?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA.
What was the final score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin?
VfL Wolfsburg 1 - 0 Union Berlin.
Where is VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA.
What competition is VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin part of?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives VfL Wolfsburg a 36% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both VfL Wolfsburg and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and Union Berlin?
Record (1 meetings): VfL Wolfsburg 0W | Draws 0 | Union Berlin 1W.
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and Union Berlin in?
VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
VfL Wolfsburg's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Union Berlin's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Union Berlin's attack versus VfL Wolfsburg's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
36%
2.81
29%
3.40
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Total xG
2.49
1.24
Union Berlin xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
10%
9.71
10%
9.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.3 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are VfL Wolfsburg and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.24 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, VfL Wolfsburg have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 25W 14D 19L record — L-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union Berlin's form line: 22W 21D 15L from 58 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VfL Wolfsburg on 1.53 PPG, Union Berlin on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, VfL Wolfsburg have posted 1.66 PPG from 29 outings (14W 6D 9L).
On the road, Union Berlin have gone 7W 10D 12L from 29 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Berlin's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfL Wolfsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
VfL Wolfsburg are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.41 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin in 64%.
Defensively: VfL Wolfsburg have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
VfL Wolfsburg have gone 25W 14D 19L in their last 58 games (1.53 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 22W 21D 15L in their last 58 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Wolfsburg at home or Union Berlin away?
VfL Wolfsburg's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Wolfsburg at home: 1.66 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.07 PPG.
Have VfL Wolfsburg or Union Berlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfL Wolfsburg have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Union Berlin in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VfL Wolfsburg and Union Berlin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
VfL Wolfsburg go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
VfL Wolfsburg's record when hosting Union Berlin specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
VfL Wolfsburg
1
Draws
4
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, VfL Wolfsburg have won 5, Union Berlin have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VfL Wolfsburg and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Union Berlin 1-2 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between VfL Wolfsburg and Union Berlin?
VfL Wolfsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfL Wolfsburg 45%, Union Berlin 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (VfL Wolfsburg) and 48% (Union Berlin).
On the defensive side: VfL Wolfsburg keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Union Berlin in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Wolfsburg home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Wolfsburg play Union Berlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of VfL Wolfsburg's recent matches and 62% of Union Berlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of VfL Wolfsburg's recent games and 48% of Union Berlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VfL Wolfsburg and Union Berlin tend to score early?
VfL Wolfsburg have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VfL Wolfsburg edge out Union Berlin 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Wolfsburg beat Union Berlin 1-0 at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA, Regular Season - 25, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.25 xG and Union Berlin 1.24 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Union Berlin landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.78 / defence 1.10 against Union Berlin attack 0.83 / defence 0.91, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 36% | Draw 29% | Union Berlin 35%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 52%, Union Berlin 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Union Berlin's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfL Wolfsburg 1.53 PPG, Union Berlin 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfL Wolfsburg win broke the near-deadlock. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.