VfL Wolfsburg 3-0 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfL Wolfsburg at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VfL Wolfsburg host Union Berlin at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 May 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
VfL Wolfsburg's home record at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union Berlin stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Union Berlin have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (VfL Wolfsburg) versus 1.60 (Union Berlin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
VfL Wolfsburg in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Union Berlin in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfL Wolfsburg 52% versus Union Berlin 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Wolfsburg 52% | Union Berlin 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 1.48 xG and Union Berlin 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.019 / defence 1.005 | Union Berlin attack 0.715 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.268. Data: 31 VfL Wolfsburg games / 31 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 49% | Draw 29% | Union Berlin 22%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Union Berlin 4.55. VfL Wolfsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfL Wolfsburg are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: VfL Wolfsburg 30% | Union Berlin 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: VOLKSWAGEN ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 49% | Draw 29% | Union Berlin 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG VfL Wolfsburg 1.48 / Union Berlin 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.019 / def 1.005 | Union Berlin attack 0.715 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Union Berlin xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin kick off?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 8 May 2021 at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA.
What was the final score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin?
VfL Wolfsburg 3 - 0 Union Berlin.
Where is VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA.
What competition is VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin part of?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives VfL Wolfsburg a 49% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both VfL Wolfsburg and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and Union Berlin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and Union Berlin in?
VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
VfL Wolfsburg's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Union Berlin's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Union Berlin's attack versus VfL Wolfsburg's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
49%
2.04
29%
3.43
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Total xG
2.39
0.91
Union Berlin xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
5%
20.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.3 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are VfL Wolfsburg and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 0.91 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 31 outings, VfL Wolfsburg have picked up 1.84 PPG on a 16W 9D 6L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Union Berlin's form line: 11W 13D 7L from 31 games, 1.48 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: VfL Wolfsburg on 1.84 PPG, Union Berlin on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, VfL Wolfsburg have posted 2.07 PPG from 15 outings (9W 4D 2L).
On the road, Union Berlin have gone 4W 5D 6L from 15 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfL Wolfsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
VfL Wolfsburg are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.52 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin in 68%.
Defensively: VfL Wolfsburg have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Wolfsburg
Current Season
Union Berlin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
VfL Wolfsburg have gone 16W 9D 6L in their last 31 games (1.84 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 11W 13D 7L in their last 31 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Wolfsburg at home or Union Berlin away?
VfL Wolfsburg's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Wolfsburg at home: 2.07 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.13 PPG.
Have VfL Wolfsburg or Union Berlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfL Wolfsburg have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Union Berlin in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VfL Wolfsburg and Union Berlin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
VfL Wolfsburg go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
VfL Wolfsburg's record when hosting Union Berlin specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
VfL Wolfsburg
1
Draws
4
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, VfL Wolfsburg have won 5, Union Berlin have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VfL Wolfsburg and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Union Berlin 1-2 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between VfL Wolfsburg and Union Berlin?
VfL Wolfsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Union Berlin see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfL Wolfsburg 40%, Union Berlin 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (VfL Wolfsburg) and 40% (Union Berlin).
On the defensive side: VfL Wolfsburg keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; VfL Wolfsburg have failed to score in 27% of games; Union Berlin in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Wolfsburg home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Wolfsburg play Union Berlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of VfL Wolfsburg's recent matches and 60% of Union Berlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of VfL Wolfsburg's recent games and 40% of Union Berlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VfL Wolfsburg and Union Berlin tend to score early?
VfL Wolfsburg have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant VfL Wolfsburg run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Union Berlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Wolfsburg beat Union Berlin 3-0 at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA, Regular Season - 32, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.48 xG and Union Berlin 0.91 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. VfL Wolfsburg beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Union Berlin landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.02 / defence 1.00 against Union Berlin attack 0.71 / defence 1.14, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 49% | Draw 29% | Union Berlin 22%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 52%, Union Berlin 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Union Berlin's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfL Wolfsburg 1.84 PPG, Union Berlin 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfL Wolfsburg win broke the near-deadlock. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.